Myanmar could have partially elected Parliament
The country's junta this month announced it would resume talks aimed at drafting a new constitution amid intensifying international calls for speedier democratic reform in the country formerly known as Burma.
The pressure was heightened by a UN Security Council decision last week to put the repressive regime on its formal agenda.
Those involved in Myanmar's National Convention meetings, held sporadically since 1993, say completion of the country's first constitution and a subsequent referendum would mark the first steps to democracy.
"By early 2008 at the earliest, there will be some elected representatives in the government," said a National Convention delegate, who did not want to be named.
But some foreign diplomats and opposition voices frozen out of the process decry it as a fraudulent attempt by the military to consolidate power.
"It is a pointless exercise designed to enshrine the military. What they are trying to do is gain legitimacy," one Yangon-based Western diplomat told AFP.
"What is the point in participating in a farce?" the diplomat said. He accused the National Convention of taking place "in a black hole".
Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962. In 1993, the government held its first National Convention to begin drawing up the country's constitution.
But talks collapsed in 1995 after democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) walked out, complaining that the process gave no real voice to opposition parties.
The National Convention reconvened in 2005 as the first step on the military's new "road map" to democracy.
The NLD again boycotted the proceedings to demand the release of political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the past 17 years under house arrest.
The absence of the NLD in the talks has prompted the United States, the United Nations and the European Union to dismiss the proceedings as a sham.
But some Myanmar watchers warn that if the current opportunity for change is not taken, no matter how imperfect it is, the military could hold on to absolute power for a lot longer.
"We know it will not be good, but it will be something," said one foreign diplomat. He thinks two more sessions will be needed before the constitution can be completed, probably by the end of 2007.
This year's National Convention begins October 10 and will likely last for two months. Over 1,000 delegates, hand-picked by the junta, will split into eight groups and discuss topics including the military's powers to
call emergency law, the role of political parties and the ability of future governments to amend the constitution.
Delegates say a referendum will follow the drafting of the constitution.
"(The public) have a dilemma if they reject it, as maybe it will take another 10 years," said Tin Htun Maung, a former NLD member who split with the party over its boycott of the National Convention.
"Maybe it is not 100 percent democracy but it is a shield against abuse by the government," said the politician, who now attends the talks as an independent.
But Win Naing, an opposition politician, said that the process has been dragged out to prolong the military's stay in power.
He said talk of the imminent completion of the constitution was "sheer speculation by optimists".
"I have never recalled any similar event on this planet, that any country has taken so long to draft a constitution," he told AFP.
He acknowledged that elections would eventually take place, but said they would not be free and fair, an assessment most delegates and analysts agree with. "We will not be able to field our candidates freely and we won't have enough political parties allowed to set up in time," said Win Naing. "I would rather see none at all."
Meanwhile, international pressure on the regime continues. Analysts say Myanmar's rulers are concerned about appeasing their neighbors, India and China, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
"ASEAN would be content to have an election of sorts," said one delegate.