Pressure on Mbeki to address crime crisis in keynote address
In his keynote address to Parliament in Cape Town, the president is expected to map out his government's main policy goals in the coming year, including tackling unemployment, poverty and how he intends to use South Africa's new role as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
After eight years in power, Mbeki still enjoys relatively high poll ratings and his ruling African National Congress party faces no serious challenge to the grip on power that it has held since the end of apartheid 13 years ago.
However, longstanding public anger about the levels of crime in a country where some 50 people are killed every day is close to boiling point and business leaders are also losing patience in the government's approach.
While Mbeki has remained typically tight-lipped about the contents of his speech, analysts say he will have to address the issue of violent crime in his speech.
"He will definitely address the issue, but whether he will do so in the terms that people are demanding is another question," said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Johannesburg-based Cenetr for Policy Studies.
Mbeki, who recently insisted that most citizens do not feel crime is out of control, needed to make an emotional connection with citizens who feel under siege from criminals but it was not a given, said Matshiqi. "He is the president of a party with a 70 percent majority. There will be no consequences."
A recent SMS poll conducted by a commercial television station drew a record response with some 400,000 people saying crime was spiraling out of control.
There have been growing signs that big business, which has long shied away from confrontation with the notoriously thin-skinned Mbeki, has had enough of his muted approach.
Last week, First National Bank pulled a major newspaper campaign which would have demanded action on crime from Mbeki, after pressure from the government and fellow members of the business community.
Economist Monica Ambrosi said Mbeki could ill afford not to express such concerns for fear of damaging investor confidence. "It (crime) is a major problem as far as people in business are concerned."
Tony Leon, leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance, said Mbeki needed to show a "massive recommitment to improve policing".
"It is a veritable war on all fronts ordinary South Africans are waging," he said.
While Mbeki may be on the defensive over crime, analysts expect him to champion the country's strong economic performance at a time when growth is running at around five percent and inflation is at around the same level.
Unemployment however remains a black mark against the government's record, with the jobless rate estimated to be as high as 40 percent.
"What he should continue to speak about is that the reality of sound economic indicators are not a reality for all South Africans," said Matshiqi. "He needs to indicate what programs will be put in place so that the benefits of economic growth extend beyond capital and the middle class to communities still racked by under-development."
On AIDS, University of the Western Cape political studies head Keith Gottschalk predicted that Mbeki -- who has previously questioned the link between HIV and AIDS -- would update the number of HIV-sufferers receiving taxpayer funded anti-retroviral treatment.
Gottschalk however cast doubt over whether Mbeki had a genuine change of heart over AIDS in a country where some 5.5 million people have the virus.
"Judging by his past seven years of speeches there is a lot he should not be saying on the topic," he said.