OPEC policy: Wait and see

September 9, 2007 - 0:0

TEHRAN -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, may reject consumers’ calls to increase supplies and lower prices from near all time high in its 145th Ordinary Meeting that is held Tuesday in Vienna.

The OPEC basket price has gained $5 in the past two weeks and reached $71.4 on Sept. 6.
Analysts believe falling stock levels in the United States, fears about hurricane damage to Atlantic oil installations and repeated indications from OPEC members that the group will not increase supply are the most important factors of oil gains.
Oil ministers of Algeria, Iran, Libya, Qatar, and Venezuela said in the past week they support keeping the quota at 25.845 million barrels per day (bpd) until Dec.
OPEC President Mohamed al-Hamli, who is also the United Arab Emirates oil minister, said recently markets are “adequately supplied”, Reuters reported.
The OPEC will meet Sept. 11 at its Vienna headquarters to determine production targets for the fourth quarter, when heating fuel sales peak.
Oil futures have risen 26 percent this year, as 10 of the group's 12 members curtailed exports to drain inventories. While OPEC oil ministers support keeping quota, the importing countries and their beneficiary organization, IEA (International Energy Agency) have raised pressure against OPEC to decide to raise production.
“I fear that OPEC has set implicitly a new target price of about $70 a barrel,” said Claude Mandil in an interview on Aug. 30, his last day as director of the International Energy Agency, which advises 26 of the world's biggest oil-consuming nations.
“I deplore this because it weighs on the global economy”, Bloomberg reported.
However, it seems that OPEC members Tuesday meeting will not decide to increase production. Because they believe, the oil markets have no shortage of supply and any increase in OPEC quota will be stockpiled immediately.
“I assure you that if there's any shortage, we will supply more crude to the market, but I think the market is really stable at this time,” OPEC Secretary-General Abdollah El-Badri said in an Aug. 28 interview in Luanda, Angola, Bloomberg reported.
Gholmhossein Nozari, Iran Oil Ministry's caretaker, said Thursday that Iran’s position in OPEC meeting would be keeping current quota.
“We believe there is enough oil in world markets and we try to keep this OPEC quota,” Nozari told PIN.
“Iran’s expert group is analyzing world economic growth, market conditions, and developed countries’ stockpiles and according to the group’s reports, we estimate OPEC suitable supply,” Nozari added.
Now OPEC members are pumping more than their agreement allows. The 10 members with quotas produced 26.71 million barrels a day last month, or about 860,000 barrels a day more than targeted, according to Bloomberg estimates. The planned cutback, agreed to in two meetings late last year, was 1.7 million barrels a day.
Anyway, it seems that the group is likely to adopt a ""wait-and-see"" attitude and reassess its production policy at its next meeting in Dec., analysts believe.
This would be a rebuff to the developed world's energy watchdog, IEA, which has repeatedly called for increased output.
Although IEA said repeatedly that oil prices are very high, but OPEC believes that current prices -- given weakening dollar against euro and inflation rate -- are around 1970s levels and are not so much high that result in weakening the world economy