Of all the problems U.S. President Barack Obama has to wrestle with, the bitter conflict between Israelis and Palestinians may prove to be the most difficult to resolve. Can he succeed where so many others before him have failed?

While it is generally agreed that the U.S. has a vital need for an Arab-Israeli peace - if only to protect its own worldwide interests against Arab and Muslim hostility - the obstacles Obama faces are formidable. Most analysts and observers of the century-long conflict tend to be pessimistic about his prospects.
Obama, however, is not without assets. The first of these is his declared determination to tackle the problem 'actively and aggressively' - in other words, to use some of his considerable political capital in bringing the parties concerned to the table and persuading them to reach a settlement. He has said clearly - and the world has taken note - that his aim is a two-state solution.
Obama's second asset is the understandable concern of any Israeli government not to offend its powerful American ally. Israel is today in a vulnerable situation. The new right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu has few international friends. In any event, Israel's image has been badly damaged by the Gaza war. Even though it has many supporters in the U.S., Israel cannot afford an open clash with Obama.
It is all too aware that some prominent Americans have begun to question the nature and value of the US-Israeli alliance. The last thing Israel wants is to trigger a backlash in American public opinion against its intimate relationship with Washington, on which it depends so greatly.
Obama has a third asset in the diplomatic weight and skills of the two men who are going to be closely involved in shaping American policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They are former senator George Mitchell, Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, and General James Jones, his National Security Adviser. Both know the Middle East well and they form a formidable duo.
Mitchell wrote a celebrated report in 2001 calling for a freeze on Israeli colonies and a Palestinian crackdown on terrorism. Commissioned by president Bill Clinton, the report was delivered to his successor, president George W. Bush - who failed to act on its recommendations. Mitchell now has a second chance to put his ideas into practice.
General Jones, a former commandant of the Marine Corps, is a distinguished U.S. soldier-diplomat. He has had extensive - but highly discrete - discussions about security with both Israelis and Palestinians. His views have not been published but he is believed to recommend sending a NATO force to the region, supplemented by Jordanian, Egyptian and Israeli troops. Placed along the Green Line and in the Jordan Valley, its mission would be to protect Israel against infiltrations and terrorist threats, to set up early warning stations, but also to build up the Palestinians' security capacity, so as to enable them, in due course, to manage without outside forces. The transition period could take several years, so as to allow time for Israel and the Palestinians to build mutual confidence and cooperation.
Israel has always opposed the stationing of international forces on the territory of Israel-Palestine. But this opposition is softening. There is a recognition in Washington that Israel will demand cast-iron guarantees of its long-term security, as well as additional American funding and weaponry to maintain its military 'qualitative edge', before it will even consider a two-state solution.
Obama's team will have to deal with a situation in great flux in both the Israeli and Palestinian camps. On the Israeli side, no one can predict how long Netanyahu's fractious coalition will survive. He will evidently do his utmost to avoid final status negotiations.
On the Palestinian side, Hamas has boosted its legitimacy by confronting Israel and surviving the Gaza war. Its control of the government and population of Gaza is now stricter than ever. At the same time, its rival Fatah - and Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian National Authority (PNA) - have suffered an erosion of legitimacy by their absence from the battle. The Palestinian political landscape has thus been profoundly altered.
If Obama's team is to make any progress, the previous American policy towards Hamas will need to be radically revised to take account of these realities on the ground.
The real test for Obama will be the future of Israel's E-1 project, part of its 'Greater Jerusalem' expansion plan. It is intended to link the large colony of Maale Adumim with occupied Jerusalem, and consolidate Israel's annexation of Arab East Jerusalem. If it goes ahead, it will doom all hopes of a Palestinian state.
If Obama does not act to quash the plan, he can forget about a peace settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.
(Source: Gulf News)