TEHRAN - Mehran Kamrava, a professor of the Middle East Studies in Georgetown University of Doha, says officials at Riyadh are uneasy as the sanctions against Iran are being removed under the nuclear deal that it clinched with major world powers in July 2015.

The agreement went into force on January 16.

“Saudi Arabia is in a state of panic now that the sanctions are being lifted on Iran and U.S.-Iranian relations do not have the tensions of previous years,” Kamrava tells the Tehran Times in an exclusive interview.

The Saudi kingdom, being angry of the nuclear deal, used the attack on its embassy in Tehran by some protestors who had been enraged by the Saudi decapitation of the pro-democracy cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, as a pretext to cut ties with Iran in early January. Saudi Arabia severed ties despite the fact that senior Iranian officials strongly condemned the move and so far dozens of people have been arrested for the attack.

Pakistan, which enjoys close ties with Tehran and Riyadh, has taken steps to bridge the gap between the two countries.

Kamrava says “Pakistan is well-positioned and has the most to gain from a reduction of tensions.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Iran on January 19 to mediate between Tehran and Riyadh. Why has Pakistan taken such a step and not Oman and Turkey?

A: It is not so much that Pakistan has more “influence” than Oman or Turkey but it is more the case that Pakistan is positioned well, and in Turkey’s case has more of a desire, to see a decrease in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s Erdogan himself has sectarian tendencies and also on a few occasions he has sharply criticized Iran’s role in Syria. For Turkey right now, Iran’s continued isolation would be advantageous and so Erdogan has little desire to see a reduction in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both Oman and Kuwait would want to see a reduction of tensions, but as part of the (P)GCC both have to appear closer to Saudi Arabia than they may actually want to be. Therefore, Pakistan is well-positioned and has the most to gain from a reduction of tensions. As you know, a very high-level delegation recently traveled to Pakistan in order to put pressure on Islamabad to cut or at least degrade ties with Iran. But Iran is a strategically important neighbor for Pakistan and Pakistan does not want to do anything that might result in a deterioration of its relations with Iran. Also, Pakistan has a very large Shia population itself, and relatively good Shia-Sunni relations, and does not want to do something that would upset domestic political order or result in tensions within its own population. That is why Pakistan is taking an active role in trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Q: Why do Saudis seek to intensify tensions with Iran? Is it because of Riyadh thinks the balance of power in the Middle East is changing in favor of Iran?

A: That’s correct. In my opinion, Saudi Arabia is in a state of panic now that the sanctions are being lifted on Iran and U.S.-Iranian relations do not have the tensions of previous years. For 37 years, the Saudis and the other countries of the GCC capitalized on tensions between Iran and the West, especially the U.S., and used these tensions to their advantage. They bought billions of dollars of arms from the West; they sold their oil without competition from Iranian oil; they attracted investments from Europe and the U.S. that might have gone to Iran; they became centers of diplomatic and economic gravity in the region as Iran became marginalized and isolated. Now that Iran is coming out of its isolation, not that the West wants to invest in Iran, now that diplomatic and security tensions between Iran and the West (and the US) are declining, these countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are scared of the consequences. How will they justify their massive arms build-ups? How will they pretend to the West that they are under threat from Iran and need Western arms and protection? And, what happens when the West starts asking questions about their human rights practices? So we see that it is not Iranian behavior that has changed and threatens Saudi Arabia. It is actually the circumstances that have changed and the Saudis are reacting to them. Therefore, Iran needs to be extremely careful in making sure that the Saudis do not have any excuses to justify their positions and that the world sees their actions and their statements as false pretenses.

Q: Turkey wants to establish a naval base in Qatar, So is it related to U.S. strategy to concentrate on Asia? Some experts believe that US wants its allies have more role in Persian Gulf, so is it true or not, if this view is correct how is will be the Iran rule in Middle East?

Q: Is there any connection between a Turkish plan to establish a naval base in Qatar and the U.S. pivot to East Asia as some analysts argue that Washington wants its allies to play a role in the Persian Gulf? Whether this view is right or not how can it impact Iran?

A: I don’t think Turkey’s efforts to establish a base in Qatar is motivated by U.S. strategy to concentrate on Asia. Turkey is a middle level power, and like all middle level powers, it wants to project power in its own region. Therefore it is establishing bases in Qatar and in Somalia. It sees these bases as manifestations of its own growing power. This is part of a policy that the AK Party and especially Erdogan have been pursuing for the last several years.

As far as Iran is concerned, this does not need to be seen as an important or significant development. Iran’s presence in the Persian Gulf is deep and meaningful; a small base in Qatar by Turkey will not significantly impact Iran strategically.


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For 37 years, the Saudis capitalized on tensions between Iran and the West, especially the U.S., and used these tensions to their advantage.


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It is not Iranian behavior that has changed and threatens Saudi Arabia. It is actually the circumstances that have changed and the Saudis are reacting to them. Therefore, Iran needs to be extremely careful in making sure that the Saudis do not have any excuses to justify their positions and that the world sees their actions and their statements as false pretenses.