‘Projecting 100 years of wet spell unscientific’

April 22, 2019

TEHRAN — Projecting the start of 100 years of wet spell in Iran is scientifically inaccurate, former director of the Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center has said.

According to the latest data published on Sunday by National Drought Warning and Monitoring Center affiliated to Iran’s Meteorological Organization since the start of the current water year (September 23, 2018) the whole country received 289.4 millimeters of rain.

The number amounted to 112.9 millimeters in the previous water year and 197.5 millimeters in the long-term, the data indicated. The numbers show a drastic increase of 156.3 percent compared to last water year. It also reveals a 46.5 percent increase compared to long-term means.

This is while last water year’s precipitations shows a dramatic decrease of 42.8 percent compared to long-term averages.

Considering the torrential rainfall the country has received over the past few months, many speculate that the prolonged drought spell has come to an end in Iran and some even have carried it to extremes believing that a 100 years of wet spell is ahead of us.

“Deciding whether a wet spell has started or not depends on the fact that if precipitations will continue in the coming years,” Fars news agency quoted Mohammad Taqi Zamanian as saying on Tuesday.

“We can call this year a wet year, however, in order to claim a wet spell has begun above normal precipitations must be recorded for some consecutive years,” Zamanian explained.

Moreover, increased precipitations are nor recorded in some regions of the country, so that not all provinces have experienced above-normal precipitations, he added.

He went on to highlight that it is impossible to predict weather precipitations will be above-normal in the next water year let alone for the next 100 years.

He also denied claims of cloud seeding causing recent rainfalls, stating that recent precipitations were all natural.

MQ/MG

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