By M.A. Saki

Professor predicts Trump will refuse presidential election results if he loses

October 6, 2020 - 23:40

TEHRAN – A professor of political science and international studies says Donald Trump has signaled that he will refuse to accept the results of the November presidential elections if he loses.

Describing the November presidential elections as the most important election in the history of the U.S. since 1860, William Lucas tells the Tehran Times that "Donald Trump has signaled that, besides trying to suppress the vote, he will not accept an outcome in which he loses."

On the contrary, Lucas says, if Democratic nominee "Joe Biden loses in the Electoral College, he will accept the outcome."

The following is the text of the interview:

Q: Does it matter to Americans who win the election?

A: As in any election, many Americans will be keen to see their preferred candidates win for the Presidency, Congress, and state and local offices.
But this election is significant because - amid Coronavirus, the effect on the economy, marches for social justices, and now a Supreme Court vacancy - it is the most important since 1860.

Q: Is election fraud possible in the U.S.? Do you expect the loser not to accept the results?

A: Contrary to the disinformation put out by Donald Trump, fraud in mail-in voting is extremely rare, with less than 1,300 fraudulent votes in the past 40 years.

Professor William Lucas says "maximum pressure (against Iran) has isolated the U.S. in the international community.”If Democratic nominee Joe Biden loses in the Electoral College, he will accept the outcome.
Donald Trump has signaled that, besides trying to suppress the vote, he will not accept an outcome in which he loses. The question is how far he and his inner circle will go in their refusal to leave the White House.

Q: Don’t you think Trump would resort to a military action against Iran to mobilize voters in his favor? 

A: While there is talk of an "October Surprise" with U.S. military action against Iran, I am skeptical. As we have seen amid tensions of the past year, most American people are wary of any clash that signals a significant American forces' commitment in the Middle East (West Asia) and the Persian Gulf.
Unless Iranian forces strike U.S. targets, for example, on Iraqi bases or in the Persian Gulf, thus justifying the Trump Administration's retaliation - I don't foresee any October Surprise.

Q: What is your analysis of Trump's rush to broker peace deals between Israel and Arab countries before the election?

A: The accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain have far more to do with relations among those countries than with Donald Trump. Contacts for economic, cultural, and even military links have been developing in private for many years - even if the public timing may be in part to give Trump a boost in his campaign.
In other words, Israel, UAE, and Bahrain (and Saudi Arabia behind them) baked the cake. Donald Trump only put his name on it.

Q: How do you assess the U.S. pressure policy on Iran? Has it been successful?

A: The Trump administration's comprehensive sanctions have had a significant effect on Iran. In combination with long-term issues inside the Islamic Republic, they have fed an economic crisis.
But beyond the immediate economic effect of the sanctions, "maximum pressure" has isolated the U.S. in the international community. The refusal in the UN by other countries, including long-standing American allies, of "snapback" sanctions is the latest sign. The Trump Administration stands alone in ripping up the 2015 nuclear deal.
In other words, the U.S. and Iran leaders - each saying they are protecting their countries - have only succeeded in damaging them in this confrontation.

Q: Could the U.S. administration expand its soft power under Trump's presidency?

A: No. Soft power depends on the appearance, if not the reality, of mutual benefit for the U.S. and for others. Donald Trump's only interest is benefiting himself and his family.
 

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