TEHRAN – Two distinct blocs have emerged within the UN Security Council as nations maneuver for votes ahead of a Russian proposal, which will offer to extend the implementation period of Resolution 2231 by six months. 

This potential extension would pause the reimposition of UN sanctions against Iran, sanctions which the E3 countries (Germany, Britain, and France) triggered a process to reinstate in August. The process known as the "snapback mechanism” is part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It allows signatories to the agreement to reinstate UN sanctions that were in place before the JCPOA lifted them in 2015 if they find Iran non-compliant of the deal. 

The United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed stringent economic sanctions on Iran. While Germany, France, and the UK – the European signatories – did not officially leave the agreement, they ceased fulfilling their commitments to protect Iran from the impact of these sanctions. Consequently, in 2020, Iran began to roll back some of its own JCPOA commitments.

China and Russia, the other two signatories to the JCPOA, have consistently criticized the West's actions, arguing they have effectively nullified the agreement. During a meeting on the sidelines of an SCO summit in Tianjin this week, the foreign ministers of Iran, China, and Russia signed a letter, prepared by Iran's Abbas Araghchi, which condemned Europe for activating the snapback. It also asserted that the E3 lacked the legal and moral justification use the snapback, as it failed to exhaust the JCPOA's Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM) and did not uphold its own commitments. 

Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear facilities, the very matter the JCPOA was designed to address, were bombed multiple times by Israel and the United States in June. European nations did not condemn these attacks, and instead placed the blame on Iran. 

Europeans have said they would temporarily extend Resolution 2231 if Iran returns to negotiations with the U.S. (negotiations Washington derailed by bombing Iran) and allows inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) back into the country. Iran has suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog for now after an IAEA report – recycling old and disproven claims about Iran's nuclear activities – provided the pretext for military action by Israel and the U.S.

Iran needs 9 votes at the UNSC

The UNSC is composed of five permanent members (the U.S., UK, France, Russia, and China) and ten non-permanent members elected by the General Assembly for two-year terms. Currently, the non-permanent members are Algeria, Denmark, Greece, Guyana, Pakistan, Panama, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and Somalia.

Araghchi held phone conversations with the foreign ministers of Greece, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia on Friday, a move widely suspected to be connected to the upcoming Russian resolution.

Among the non-permanent members, South Korea and Denmark are considered the most likely to align with the West when Russia presents its extension proposal. Guyana also maintains close ties with the United States and is in disagreement with Venezuela, a key ally of Iran in Latin America.

Iran's relations with Greece, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and Panama are described as neither antagonistic nor particularly friendly. This neutral stance may explain why the Iranian Foreign Minister chose to engage with representatives of these nations first.

Russia, China, Algeria, and Pakistan are expected to vote in favor of the draft resolution. To pass, Iran needs to secure the support of five additional members. If the resolution fails to achieve nine affirmative votes, even with abstentions, it will not be adopted.

Once a resolution is voted for at the Security Council, the permanent members retain the power to veto it. It is highly likely that the U.S., France, or Britain would choose to veto the bill, but all three are hoping they would not have to do so, as it comes with political complications.

The activation of snapback has negatively impacted Iran's economy in recent days and further devalued the Iranian Rial. That’s why some within Iran oppose extending Resolution 2231. They argue that the return of UN sanctions has primarily psychological effects, rather than practical ones, and that the Iranian market would suffer again if this situation were to repeat in six months.

Russia has already distributed its draft resolution, according to remarks by Western missions. Iranians have said that if pre-JCPOA UN sanctions are eventually re-instated, they would seriously consider leaving the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).