Russia Expects Minor Reshuffle Despite Rumors
President Vladimir Putin overhauled "power ministries" in March, replacing his defense and interior ministers in a bid to consolidate central authority over the world's largest country.
But he has maintained silence on further possible changes.
A further revamp, the focus of interminable rumors, had been predicted for the end of May. But Kasyanov said at the weekend that he had asked Putin to put off for a couple of weeks what amounted to "fine-tuning".
"As for the deadlines, there really is not much time ... and we are beginning the budget process," Reuters quoted Kasyanov as telling Russian reporters during a visit to Poland. "So I will ask the president to put off the fine-tuning ... for a week or two."
Kasyanov's dismissal, once considered inevitable, appears likely to be stayed. Analysts now see changes confined to reducing Kasyanov's five deputy prime ministers and weeding out second-tier ministers and remnants of the era of Putin's predecessor, Boris Yeltsin.
"This is certainly not going to be a major overhaul, but rather a spring cleaning," a government source told Reuters.
"You need not expect any radical shuffle. The prime minister will stay, as will those linked to the economy."
Putin engineered his first cabinet change in February, sacking his energy minister after thousands in Russia's Pacific region were left without heat or light for weeks.
He tightened his grip on power a month later by naming Sergei Ivanov as Russia's first civilian defense minister and Boris Gryzlov as interior minister. Both were close allies from Putin's home town, St. Petersburg.
In his first year, Putin cut down other potential rivals, trimming the powers of local bosses. He also pledged to reform natural monopolies and that could mean a decision within days on the removal of Rem Vyakhirev, head of gas giant Gazprom.
He distanced himself from Yeltsin, disowning business magnates who had close Kremlin ties and approving reinstatement of music from the Soviet-era anthem -- anathema to Yeltsin.
---- Putin Ceases Criticism of Economic Policy ----
But Putin's criticism of Kasyanov's economic policies early in the year, particularly his gaffe in proposing postponement of debt repayments to Paris Club members, faded as a parliamentary no-confidence vote in the government was crushed in March.
Also gone is talk of a clearout of economic ministers.
"Putin sometimes acts as a lion, cutting the Gordian knot with great speed when he is sure of the outcome. That was the case when he appointed Ivanov and Gryzlov," said Igor Bunin, director of the Center for Political Technologies think tank.
"Sometimes, he acts like a fox, cautiously. I think we will see the lion again, in a few months, a year, but not now. He has dozens of options, but he must choose one to his advantage."
Putin has been reassuring on government performance, playing down higher than expected inflation and saying positive economic trends, like growth rates, were being maintained.
Most analysts say one or two of Kasyanov's deputies could face the chop. Speculation focuses on Alexei Gordeyev, who is also agriculture minister, and Ilya Klebanov, responsible for the defense industry as well as the project to raise the sunken nuclear-powered submarine Kursk from the Arctic seabed.
---- Secondary Ministers May Go ----
The government source suggested that those at risk included Health Minister Yuri Shevchenko, Science and Technology Minister Alexander Dondukov, Boris Yatskevich at natural resources and Vladimir Filippov at education. Also mentioned by commentators is Federal Affairs Minister Alexander Blokhin.
Much has also been made of suggestions that Putin would drop his Chief of Staff, Alexander Voloshin, the most prominent leftover from the Yeltsin era. But analysts said they believed the time was not ripe for Putin to replace Voloshin.
"I think it is likely that Voloshin will leave earlier than Kasyanov, but he won't be going just yet," said Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the Center for Strategic Studies.
"The main feature of the changes is Kasyanov staying on. The prime minister is a valuable legacy from Yeltsin and would be an expensive scapegoat. But if the economy worsens he could go."