Schroeder Tries to Make ECB the Scapegoat for His Economic Woes

July 1, 2001 - 0:0
BERLIN Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder pointed the finger at the European Central Bank on Friday over a sharp slowing of the German economy, saying it should face up to its responsibilities. His comments appeared to throw down the gauntlet to ECB President Wim Duisenberg who has often repeated that keeping inflation under control was the bank's overriding task, not kick-starting the economy, AFP reported. Schroeder, speaking to the Lower House of German Parliament, the Bundestag, insisted he was not trying to tell the ECB what to do. But he said that the government had done what it could to lay the foundations for growth and it was now up to others, such as the ECB and wage negotiators, to make their contribution. "It is not for us to give the ECB any advice, because it is independent," Schroeder said. "But we assume that it will face up to its responsibilities" and, in its independence, set the appropriate monetary policy, the chancellor said. "It is now up to other economic players to send corresponding signals and act responsibly," he said. Later, Schroeder told a banking congress in Berlin that in addition to its task of setting monetary policy for the euro area, the ECB "also has the by no means negligible goal of considering growth." The bank would do that, "you can be sure of that," the chancellor added. The Maastricht Treaty explicitly states that the ECB's primary objective is to maintain price stability. Only when that objective is not prejudiced can it "support the general economic policies" of the euro-zone governments. With just over a year to go before the next general elections, Schroeder is in a difficult position. He and his government took the credit last year for the strong performance of the German economy in 2000, the best in more than 10 years. But he does not appear to want to shoulder the responsibility for disappointing growth this year, which could see the biggest economy in the euro area skidding to near stagnation by the end of 2001 and could jettison the chancellor's hopes of cutting unemployment to less than 3.5 million by next autumn. Germany is indeed being hit much harder than anyone had expected by the sharp deterioration in global economic conditions. Leading economic organizations and institutions are lowering their growth forecasts almost daily. The influential IFO Economic Research Institute cut its forecast this week to 1.2 percent and warned that the German economy was nearing stagnation. And a newspaper report suggested on Friday that the International Monetary Fund, too, was preparing to slash its German growth forecasts for the second time this year to just 1.3 percent. With growth slowing so drastically, the government's hopes of keeping a lid on public spending might be jeopardized, economists suggest. Under its stability program, Berlin hopes to keep its budget deficit down to just 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and plans to achieve a balanced budget by 2006. But the IFO institute predicted that the budget deficit ratio could rise to 2.0 percent this year. And the IMF said it could even spike as high as 2.25 percent, not far off the 3.0-percent ceiling laid down in the Maastricht Treaty. Ever since its inception, the ECB has been urging governments to make use of periods of strong growth to get their finances in order. that would provide a comfortable buffer when the economic seas get rough, it argues. Even German Finance Minister Hans Eichel, formally a staunch supporter of ECB independence, appears to be unnerved by the extent and depth of the economic downturn and has recently adopted a more aggressive tone towards the ECB. It could -- and should -- loosen the monetary screws somewhat, he argues. But for the ECB, its task is clear: Its overriding mandate, as explicitly laid down in the Maastricht Treaty, is to safeguard price stability. That alone is the best contribution a Central Bank can make to growth. Everything else is up to the politicians.