British Economy in Danger of Becoming Europe's Sick Man: Experts

May 27, 2002 - 0:0
LONDON The British economy stalled for the second quarter in a row in the first three months of this year, official figures showed, putting the world's fourth-largest economy in danger of becoming the sick patient of Europe.

Having been one of Europe's main economic success stories for much of the last decade, figures revealed that the British economy stood still again in early 2002, just as other leading European economies were beginning to show signs of revival.

British gross domestic product was also just 1.0 percent higher than in the first three months of last year -- the weakest performance in a decade.

In contrast, the French economy enjoyed quarterly growth of 0.4 percent in the march quarter, while figures released recently showed Europe's number-one economy, Germany, grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous one, AFP reported.

Analysts believe that while the Bank of England's decision to slash interest rates to their lowest level in 38 years has halped stave off recession, Europe's number-two economy could be set to underperform for some time, particularly if interest rates were to rise in the coming months.

According to Commerzbank head of currency research, Nick Parsons, two consecutive quarters of zero growth was disappointing given that British rates were at their lowest level in living memory.

"The danger is that when the brakes go on from the Bank of England, it really does mean the uk will grow quite a bit more slowly than Europe," Parsons warned.

Analysts believe that although the strength of retail sales figures published on Thursday had pointed to a strong performance by the British economy in the current quarter, this was likely to be matched by France.

"We'd look for (British) growth to be back up around 0.5 percent this quarter and I think the recession scare will be over. But even if the UK grows half a percent Europe could easily match that," Parsons said.

He believes France, Europe's third largest economy, will remain the driver of economic growth within the euro zone, with Germany having only just come out of recession.

"France has got a much more de-regulated labor market than Germany ... as a result it's economy is much more flexible and I think in an upswing france will lead the way," Parsons said.

"Germany seems to be condemned to be permanantly behind France for the next few years. On a two-year view, I can't imagine a situation where Germany grows more quickly than France," he added.

Perversely, the analyst believes the British government may actually welcome the prospect of its economy becoming the laggard of Europe since it may offer a solution to the thorny issue of how to engineer sterling's entry into the euro.

"I think it would be quite happy if the Bank of England raised interest rates as soon as June of this year. If people saw euro entry offered the prospect of lower rates and higher growth it may be enough to sway a euro vote," he said.