N.Z. dollar drops on RBNZ selling, focus on carry

June 12, 2007 - 0:0
TOKYO (Reuters) -- The New Zealand dollar tumbled from a 22-year high versus the U.S. dollar on Monday after selling by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised concerns about how much longer carry trades would continue.

The dollar was little changed against the euro and the yen, holding onto gains versus the euro after hitting a two-month high late last week when the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield jumped to its highest level in around five years. The New Zealand currency fell 1.5 percent against the U.S. dollar. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard confirmed the intervention, adding that the central bank regarded current levels as "exceptional and unjustified in terms of economic fundamentals."

Analysts said that market participants may consider the New Zealand currency's losses as a sign that the carry trade, in which investors use low-yielding currencies such as the yen to pick up assets in high-yielding ones, may have gone too far.

"It may impact other high-yielding currencies by unnerving investors conducting carry trade who have become wary of rising interest rates worldwide," said Koji Fukaya, senior currency strategist at Deutsche Bank.

He added that an unwinding of such positions may prompt short covering in the yen, which in the past few years has been the biggest loser in the carry trade.

RBNZ selling helped to drive the New Zealand dollar down to US$0.7514, sharply lower than $0.7640 hit late last week for the first time in 22 years since the central bank floated the currency.

It dropped around 1.7 percent to 91.41 yen, dropping from a 17-year high just below 93 yen hit on Friday.

The Australian dollar slipped in sympathy with its New Zealand counterpart, falling roughly half a percent against the U.S. dollar and the yen.

Australian markets were closed for a national holiday on Monday.

The euro edged down 0.15 percent to around, closing in on a two-month low around $1.3320 touched on Friday.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was at 82.75, near 82.919 touched on Friday for the first time since early April.

The dollar steadied around 121.65 yen On Friday, it climbed to around 121.85 yen, boosted by a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.25 percent -- near a five-year high and matching the Federal Reserve's official funds rate.

The U.S. currency was within range of a 4 1/2-year high against the yen, having clawed back from losses posted early last week, after U.S. share prices recovered from a sell-off thanks to a mild rebound in the Treasury market on Friday.

The single European currency slipped 0.20 percent to around 162.45 yen as the yen inched up broadly against higher-yielding currencies following heavy losses last week.

Traders brushed off revised data on Monday that showed Japan's economy expanded by 0.8 percent in January-March from the previous quarter, as expected, up from an initial estimate of 0.6 percent.