By Javad Heirannia

Trump government is shooting star, soon vanish: Bianchi

May 6, 2018 - 12:7

TEHRAN – Robert R. Bianchi, a Professor at the University of Chicago, believes that “The Trump government is a shooting star, soon to vanish without a trace.”

Professor Bianchi, who also teaches at the Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), adds that “Other countries feel no need to engage it seriously because they know its successor will be more reliable and trustworthy.”

The professor tells the Tehran Times that “Iran would be wise to avoid over-reacting to Trump.”

Following is the complete text of the interview:

Q: North and South Korean leaders have held an historic summit. Why did the two parties reach this point?

A: North Korea has crossed several important thresholds in its nuclear weapons program. It has developed bombs and long-range missiles to deliver them. Now it must merge the two into a reliable system—a difficult task that could take a few months or several years. Hence, this is a logical time for them to probe for concessions from other nations while devoting greater attention to their damaged economy.

Q: The leaders of North and South Korea also pledged to "cease all hostile acts" amid a "new era of peace". Kim Jong Un agreed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Can they accomplish these goals?

A: Seizing the initiative, North Korea has constructed a four-sided bargaining process including China, South Korea, and the United States. This allows them to play off the other three nations by offering them soft promises about its future actions in return for a package of concessions such as lifting sanctions, reducing America’s military presence, and signing a formal peace treaty. The aim is to gain international respect and legitimacy for North Korea while putting the United States on the defensive against Chinese and South Korean pressures to accept compromises that previous American presidents have consistently rejected.    

Q: Trump gave the deal a cautious welcome, tweeting that "time will tell" if it leads to an end to nuclear missile tests. "The United States, and all of its GREAT people, should be very proud of what is now taking place," he added. What will be the impact of this summit on Trump’s decision concerning the JCPOA?

A: The Trump government is a shooting star, soon to vanish without a trace. Other countries feel no need to engage it seriously because they know its successor will be more reliable and trustworthy. Iran would be wise to avoid over-reacting to Trump. Even if he tries to annul the JCPOA, other signatories will preserve it until the U.S. reinstalls sensible leadership.

Q: What will be the impact of this summit on the security order in eastern Asia, including China - N. Korea relations)?

A: East Asia’s security is in the hands of the region’s leaders who are less willing than ever to let outsiders exert influence. China and Japan will control events with Indonesia and Australia playing important secondary roles. Korean and American voices will fade into the background as Pacific Asia develops a collective approach to managing its own fate.
 

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