By Saeed Sobhani

German Green party on the path to victory

June 10, 2019

TEHRAN - Chancellor of Germany will have difficult days!The Christian Democrats have gained very poor results in the European Parliamentary elections. On the other hand, small German parties like the Green Party and Liberal Democratic Party are becoming powerful and decisive parties. This is despite the fact that the increasing popularity of the two traditional German parties, the Christian Democrat and the Social-Democratic Party, has risen more than ever.

An overview of the latest polls in Germany shows that the Green Party has become more popular with the German public after winning the European parliamentary election. As Deutsche Welle reported, tThe opposition Greens have hit a record high in a new opinion poll, pulling ahead of Angela Merkel's conservatives. The center-left SPD have dropped even further, slipping behind the far-right Alternative for Germany.

A Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest dimap has put the environmentalist Greens up 6 percentage points at a record 26%, one point ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and sister party Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), reflecting a similar sampling last week.In last month's European Parliament elections, the Greens came second among German voters with 20.5%, behind Merkel's bloc, with a mandate focused on issues such as climate change and a renewables-based economy.In another boon for the Greens, the party's dual leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock polled at 36% and 26% respectively, placing them fourth and sixth as preferred national politicians in Thursday's findings published by Germany's ARD public broadcaster.

Merkel maintained her top placing at 53%, only 2% down from her Deutschlandtrend rating in May.Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who in December took over from Merkel as conservative CDU party leader, slumped 12 percentage points to 24% in the poll, which asked 1,500 Germans how they would vote if an election were to be held on Sunday.The poor result for Kramp-Karrenbauer, also known as AKK, was her lowest rating yet in a Deutschlandtrend survey. Only 27% thought she would make a good chancellor.

For party preferences, respondents put the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 13%, just ahead of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), which is searching for a new leader after this week's resignation of Andrea Nahles, on 12%. For the Social Democrats and Merkel's conservatives, the Deutschlandtrend results are their worst ever. The business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) remained at 8% Thursday, while the socialist Left party slipped to 7%, down 2% on last month.In a separate sampling on Thursday, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polling agency put Merkel's conservatives at 27%, with the Greens close behind at 26%.

In another Infratest sampling of 1,000 voters, 72% responded that they were somewhat or completely dissatisfied with the work of Merkel's coalition government of her conservatives and the SPD, a 10% rise in dissatisfaction since last month. Those who were satisfied or very satisfied with the coalition's work made up only 28%.In a separate YouGov survey, a majority of 52% wanted a fresh federal election. Only 27% called for a continuation of Merkel's coalition government.

The most preferred future coalition for 25% of respondents was an alliance of the Greens, the SPD and Left party.A so-called "Jamaica" alliance between Merkel's conservatives, the Greens and FDP came next at 15%, with a conservative-Greens scenario relegated to 14%.Among Green party voters, 54% hoped their party would enter into an alliance with the SPD and Left party. Only 25% wanted a Greens-conservative model, along the lines of the governments in the regional states of Hesse and in Baden-Württemberg.

Merkel's ruling coalition — forged after months of wrangling in the wake of Germany's 2017 general election — is nominally due to stay in office until 2021.The next election test for the conservatives comes in September and October, when regional assembly elections take place in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia, three eastern German states where the far-right AfD is polling strongly.

Also Independent reported that It is not clear whether the Greens’ surge in Germany will last: the party has had bounces in polls before, but it has previously tended to fade away. However, the country could be facing an early general election if the SPD’s new leader decides to pull the plug on the grand coalition with Ms Merkel, and she is unable to form another government with the support of other parties.

The SPD’s historically very weak polling could encourage the party to resist another elections, however – despite calls for it to head into opposition to lick its wounds and rebuild. Angela Merkel has already said she would step down as chancellor rather than contest another federal election. She has already given up her party leadership to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, her favoured protege and the likely next chancellor of Germany.

The fact is that the traditional German parties, especially the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats, have become closer to their political deadlock. On the other hand, these days, few people mention the German Chancellor as a powerful politician in the world. In his recent trip to Jordan, Angela Merkel also failed to analyze the realities of the world as an independent and powerful politician.The German Chancellor has given many concessions to his rival party in the formation of a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, now no one else will remember Merkel as a powerful politician in Germany and Europe.

German political future is ambiguous! Can the traditional party again be at the head of the political and administrative equations of Berlin, or will power come to the next parties in the near future?Angela Merkel has announced that she will step down of power in 2021, but the polls conducted in Germany has intensively worried her. The results of these polls indicate that the total popularity of the two traditional German parties, the coalition of the Christian and Social Democrats, have fallen below 50%. This suggests the unpopularity of the coalition government among the German citizens. Merkel now has to run the weak coalition government until 2021!

Many analysts of Europe's affairs believe that Merkel's power is actually over. The Chancellor of Germany is no longer the symbol of power in United Europe. She has lost the power of managing the power equations in her country. In other words, Merkel has become a "passive player" in Berlin, the European Union, and the Eurozone.

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