By Saeed Sobhani

The probability of defeat of Trump in the upcoming presidential election

June 15, 2019 - 11:31
Controversial president in deadlock!

Recent polls in the United States show that Donald Trump's defeat in presidential elections next year is likely. These polls are published while Trump in the field of foreign policy is extremely confused and incapacitated. He has practically lost the game against Iran, China, and Venezuela.

Looking at the results of recent polls and analyzing Western media from the latest trump status, we can help us understand the current political situation in the United States:

Trump’s big problem is that he’s unpopular

Matthew Yglesias wrote in Vox that If you look at Donald Trump’s polling lately, it sure looks like he’s in trouble for reelection. A June 11 Quinnipiac poll showed Trump losing 40-53 to Joe Biden. He’s also down 51-42 to Bernie Sanders, 41-49 to Kamala Harris, 42-49 to Elizabeth Warren, 42-47 to Pete Buttigieg, and 42-47 to Cory Booker.

All plausible contenders at this moment can take heart in the fact that just 40 to 42 percent of the population feels like voting for Trump’s reelection. The public is mostly saying they want to vote for any Democrat, and the strongest pattern so far indicates better-known Democrats do better than the more obscure ones.None of this means that Trump is a sure bet to lose the election in 2020 — public opinion can change fast and there’s nothing particularly predictive about polling this far out — but it’s a pretty clear snapshot of public opinion right now.

Trump, for now, is unpopular. FiveThirtyEight’s’s polling average shows Trump currently has a 42 percent approval rating. He’s unpopular and losing despite the huge field arrayed against him; he’s unpopular and losing despite Democrats’ confused message on impeachment, and he’s unpopular and losing despite some very real continued ability to successfully manipulate the media.

The head-to-head polling doesn’t really tell us much about events 18 months in the future, but it does tell us there’s no counterintuitive process whereby Trump secures the votes of tons of people who say he’s doing a bad job as president. He is getting the votes of basically the exact same share of the population as thinks he’s doing a good job. And as of now, that doesn’t look like it’s nearly enough people to win.

Democrats are very anti-complacency after being taken by surprise in 2016. Ben LaBolt, a former Barack Obama spokesperson who now works at a communications consulting firm, set a lot of heads on fire over the weekend with an Atlantic article charging that Democrats were blowing 2020 already. Trump is spending a ton of money on reelection ads, LaBolt argued, and Democrats aren’t running their anti-Trump ads yet. Obviously, consultants would love it if rich Democrats would turn their anti-Trump fervor into early ad spending, but whatever Trump is doing right now clearly isn’t working. Saving resources for the future when he may hit upon something that does work and needs to be countered seems perfectly sensible.

Rather than being either complacent or paralyzed by fear, Democrats should probably take a modest amount of reassurance from Trump’s bad polls and try worrying about everything else for a minute.

There are some things to worry about! Democrats have done pretty well in 2019 special elections, for example, but considerably worse than they did in 2017 and 2018. Their special surge in 2017 represented a huge increase in grassroots activism and energy in response to Trump’s win. 2019 backslide seems to reflect a post-midterms diminishment of that intensity. Yet in state elections this year in Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, Medicaid expansion — and with it health care for tens of thousands of people — will be on the line. These are tough elections about which available public polling has little to say and where time, energy, and money are likely to be extremely valuable.

Then there’s the 2020 Senate map. To govern in 2021, Democrats will need to win a long-shot Senate race or two as well as winning two races in Arizona and Colorado, which are by no means gimmes. The real question is will whoever winds up running in Montana, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Texas, and elsewhere have an energized and determined group of people behind them. Democrats have struggled to secure the party establishment’s most favored recruits in several of these races, though there are limits to the central party’s recruiting wisdom.

There are no guarantees of anything in politics, but it’s as close to a sure thing as you’ll find that these important, down-ballot elections are going to be tougher races than the presidential election.

Trump lashes out at polls that show 2020 re-election bid in trouble

Guardian reported that Donald Trump on Wednesday lashed out at new polling results showing the president in deep trouble as he mounts his 2020 re-election bid.A day after a survey found at least six Democratic presidential candidates would defeat Trump in a head-to-head election matchup, the president revived his attacks on the media while dismissing the numbers as, in his view, “fake polling”.

“The Fake News has never been more dishonest than it is today. Thank goodness we can fight back on Social Media,” Trump tweeted. “Their new weapon of choice is Fake Polling, sometimes referred to as Suppression Polls (they suppress the numbers). Had it in 2016, but this is worse…”

Trump went on to deny a report in the New York Times that his campaign’s own internal polling found him in a weak position across 17 states.“The Fake (Corrupt) News Media said they had a leak into polling done by my campaign which, by the way and despite the phony and never-ending Witch Hunt, are the best numbers WE have ever had,” Trump wrote. “They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist. WE WILL WIN AGAIN!”

The pair of tweets followed a devastating poll released on Tuesday by Quinnipiac University, which showed Trump trailing six Democratic contenders by between five and 13 points among 1,214 registered voters polled nationwide.

Former vice-president Joe Biden held the strongest advantage over Trump, polling at 13 points above him, followed by the Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at nine points. Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren led Trump by seven and eight points respectively, and even the South Bend mayor, Pete Buttigieg, and the New Jersey senator Cory Booker – both of whom rank among the lesser-known Democratic candidates – each came in five points ahead of Trump.

The results echoed other national and swing state polls spelling difficulty for Trump as he builds his case for a second term before the American public.Pollsters warn that it is far too early to draw any sweeping conclusions from the findings at this stage. Although the surveys are designed to reflect the temperature of the electorate in this moment, the mood can quickly change. Most Americans are not yet tuned into the 2020 election, and they are only just getting to know some of the candidates in the Democratic field.

Pollsters were also rattled by the 2016 election, when surveys consistently favored Hillary Clinton in key battleground states. Despite Clinton’s lead over Trump in most pre-election polls, voters previously regarded as undecided turned out in droves and swung for Trump in the final days. Their turnout was higher than projected and some had not told pollsters they supported the controversial candidate.

The Quinnipiac poll suggested Trump could stand to benefit from 70% of Americans saying the economy is “excellent” or “good”.

“The Trump bump to 42% job approval is nothing to sniff at. It’s one point shy of the best Quinnipiac University survey number ever for President Trump,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Trump and Biden are engaged in an escalating war of words, offering a preview of a hypothetical general election contest if Biden wins the nomination next year. Trump has publicly questioned Biden’s mental fitness and reportedly instructed his aides to deny that his campaign’s internal polling showed him trailing Biden in many must-win states.

Trump nonetheless insisted he was not concerned, telling reporters on Tuesday: “I think he’s the weakest mentally … The others have much more energy.“I’d rather run against, I think, Biden than anybody.”

Millionaires say they are more likely to vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020 elections

Robert Frank wrote in CNBC that American millionaires would elect Joe Biden over President Donald Trump if the former vice president becomes the Democratic nominee, according to a new survey.

The CNBC Millionaire survey asked millionaires who they would choose for president if Trump runs against various opponents in 2020. Biden and Pete Buttigieg are the only Democratic nominees who beat Trump among the top Democratic candidates in a head-to-head race.

Fully 53% of millionaire respondents said they would vote for Biden, compared with 39% for Trump, while 9% would be undecided. In a race between Trump and Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, wins 43% to Trump’s 42%. Against Sen. Bernie Sanders, Trump wins 46% to 40%. Trump beats Sen. Kamala Harris among millionaires 45% to 42%, while he beats Sen. Elizabeth Warren 47% to 40%.

Of course, millionaire voters aren’t reliable predictors of election results. Millionaires backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a comfortable margin over Trump before the 2016 election, 44% to 31%, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

And being favored by millionaires could be a negative for Democratic candidates, who are running on populist, antiwealth platforms. Biden is already being attacked by his opponents for being too cozy with wealthy donors and corporate lobbyists.

Yet given how much wealthy investors have prospered under the Trump presidency — from lower taxes and surging stock prices and cash buybacks — millionaire support for Biden suggests that economic issues may not be their primary concern.

“I think what it tells us is that millionaires think that Biden is better against Trump than the other candidates,” said George Walper, president of Spectrem Group, which conducts the survey. To be included in the poll, respondents had to have investable assets of $1 million or more. Of the 750 respondents, 261 were Republicans, 218 were Democrats and 261 identified as Independent. Walper said that just as in 2016, millionaire voters may be underreporting their support for Trump.“People’s underlying opinions may not be expressed here,” he said. “When it comes down to who they actually vote for, that gap may narrow.”

Wealthy voters are also large donors, which could help Biden. Nearly half of Democratic millionaires plan to donate to the 2020 campaign or have already donated, according to the survey, that compares with less than a third of Republicans.


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