By Xavier Villar

Assessing Iran's Military Capabilities

March 8, 2024 - 22:49

TEHRAN - The purpose of this article is to examine Iran's defensive capabilities at a time when the region is immersed in ongoing tension that could escalate into a large-scale military conflict.

First and foremost, it is important to highlight that the Islamic Republic has consistently expressed its willingness to resolve potential conflicts through intra-regional diplomacy, acknowledging that it is the countries within the region that bear the responsibility of discussing the foundations of political coexistence. However, it is evident that, despite this "diplomatic willingness," the region presents a series of unique political characteristics that cannot be solely addressed through inter-regional diplomacy.

For example, Israel, or the Zionist entity, according to the grammar of the Islamic Republic, is not perceived as simply another country in the Middle Eastern landscape, but rather as the clearest embodiment of Western ideology and its political dangers. Israel's presence in the region poses a series of security challenges that cannot be addressed exclusively through diplomacy. In addition to the Zionist colonial entity, it is also important to mention the presence of the United States, as well as regional competition with Turkey, as security elements to be considered.

The situation in Iran presents a series of unique circumstances that impact its military capabilities. Specifically, the country's economy is under significant pressure and experiencing a prolonged recession due to years of severe sanctions. As a result, Iran does not have the freedom to increase its defense and military expenditures discretionarily.

In this sense, it is important to highlight that sanctions have a long history within the Western system. They are not merely an alternative or complement to war, but rather a form of warfare by other means. These sanctions are primarily directed from the core towards the semi-periphery and periphery, aiming to cause significant harm to the internal productive forces of nation-states and create dependent populations.

However, despite the sanctions, Iran has managed to significantly develop its military capabilities, which, along with its regional diplomacy, has allowed it to consolidate itself as a power in the region. From a military perspective, Iran bases its defense on a responsiveness that matches the level of threat it faces. This responsiveness is framed within an asymmetric vision of defense, which involves establishing relationships, based on discursive similarities, with both state and non-state actors in the region. Iran has sought to maximize the use of this asymmetric approach, both to deter any threat and to defend its interests in the region.

This relationship, as mentioned, is based on discursive similarities, rejecting the centrality of a discourse that presents the relationship between Iran and its regional allies in terms of domination by the former. The political relationship between the Islamic Republic and the other members of the Resistance Axis cannot be understood in hierarchical terms, but rather in political-discursive affinities that imply a distribution of power horizontally.

Considering all of the above, it can be said that one of Iran's strengths from a defensive standpoint is its size. As one of the most populous countries in the region, Iran boasts armed forces exceeding a million members. In addition to this number, the members of the rest of the Resistance Axis have made it clear that they will collaborate in its defense in the event of conflict. Overall, the Iranian army ranks on par with the other two most important armies in the region, such as those of Turkey and Egypt.

Due to the sanctions imposed over the years, the Islamic Republic has invested considerable effort in developing an autonomous defense industry in recent decades. This has allowed Iran to keep its army up to date compared to its closest competitors. Specifically, Iran has made notable progress in the development of missile and drone systems, a constant priority for Iranian military leaders that became a defensive necessity during the war with Iraq in the 1980s. Currently, Iran is recognized as one of the top five countries in the world in drone production.

Another strong point in Iran's defensive capabilities is its geography. Several Iranian experts have highlighted the physical characteristics of the country that present significant obstacles to a potential invasion. Firstly, Iran's considerable size, almost four times that of Iraq, provides it with a notable strategic depth. Most of Iran's borders are safeguarded by extensive mountain ranges, especially the Zagros Mountains in the west. Additionally, most of Iran's major population centers are located in mountainous areas, providing them with natural protection. The access to a vital maritime route, the Persian Gulf, and Iran's absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman crucial for hydrocarbon transportation, should not be underestimated. This complete dominance of the Strait gives Iran the ability to block the passage of ships in case of extreme necessity, which would have significant repercussions on the global economy.

Regarding the challenges in defense, it has been pointed out that sanctions represent the main adversity facing the country. These sanctions have led to deficiencies in Iran's conventional weapon arsenals and have prevented it from having an adequate military budget to overcome this limitation. It is important to highlight that, due to the sanctions, the country has faced needs in areas such as anti-aircraft defenses and military transportation, as it relies on a fleet of outdated aircraft.

Despite these challenges, Iran has managed to develop its military industry, and according to its own estimates, it has the capability to inflict significant damage in response to any threat. The country has creatively addressed the difficulties imposed by external pressure. In this regard, it is worth highlighting the construction of underground military facilities that are protected against potential enemy air attacks.

It can be asserted, therefore, that the Islamic Republic will continue to organize its defense around an asymmetric vision. The deterrent potential of this approach has created a situation where Iran's adversaries understand that any direct attack against the country would result in a response of equal intensity.

Finally, it is important to remember that the defensive vision of the Islamic Republic is framed within a political perspective that divides the region in terms of friends and enemies, based on the Islamic distinction between political actors who tirelessly seek justice and truth, and those who are based on injustice and oppression.
 

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