As Netanyahu's dominance over Israeli politics steadily diminishes, a new political landscape is beginning to emerge in the Zionist right. The era of Netanyahu—a leader whose influence shaped Israel's political scene for over a decade—seems to be drawing to a close.

Except for the partisan polls run by Israel's Channel 14 television, the majority of reliable surveys suggest the Likud leader's grip is loosening, signaling a potential end to the reign of a man who has long personified Israel's right-wing politics.

The shifting sands of political stability

Throughout his unprecedented tenure, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu has been both a symbol of political continuity and, increasingly, a source of division. From 2009 to 2019, Netanyahu and his Likud party were pillars of stability, with allies forging coalitions around his leadership. However, the appeal of aligning with Netanyahu began to sour, particularly as his ambition often overshadowed inclusivity.

Early coalitions that included the Labor Party under Ehud Barak in 2011 were short-lived—a pattern that repeated itself with prominent centrist figures like Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni, who joined Netanyahu's 2013 cabinet only to face dismissal by the end of 2014.  

The bridges Netanyahu burned with key allies, such as Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, signaled a broader trend. Disenchantment peaked in 2018, when disagreements over a ceasefire with Hamas ruptured Lieberman’s alliance with Likud. Soon after, the coalition chaos led to five consecutive elections between 2019 and 2022.

Former generals like Benny Gantz and longtime allies like Naftali Bennett added their names to the ever-growing list of former partners-turned-critics, opting to challenge Netanyahu rather than collaborate further.  

Despite Netanyahu's resilience during these crises, his tactics left bruises on Israel’s political system. The revolving-door nature of coalitions and the trauma of repeated elections underscored Israel's increasing instability, with Netanyahu perceived as the common denominator. By the time he reclaimed power in November 2022, it was at the helm of the most right-wing and religiously hardline government in Israeli history—an accomplishment heralded as a victory but fraught with new dangers.

Judicial reforms: A self-inflicted wound?

The first sparks of Netanyahu's undoing were lit by his own hand. His coalition, emboldened by its numerical advantage over the opposition, embarked on an ambitious and polarizing program of judicial reforms.

Touted by Justice Minister Yariv Levin as a necessary measure to curtail the power of the Supreme Court, the proposed changes promised sweeping alterations to Israel's governance. Under current law, Israel’s Supreme Court holds significant veto power, frequently overriding government decisions it deems unconstitutional.  

Unveiled in January 2023, the proposed judicial reforms sparked immediate and widespread public backlash. By January 7, just days after their introduction, mass protests swept across Israel, continuing for a historic 39 weeks.

These demonstrations not only fractured Israeli society but also exposed the extent to which even the traditionally apolitical military and security apparatus were being drawn into the nation's internal crises. The wave of polarization weakened Netanyahu’s credibility, even as it paralyzed the government’s ability to focus on external threats.  

In hindsight, this domestic vulnerability may have contributed to Hamas’s decision to carry out its audacious attacks on October 7, 2023. Israel’s inability to foresee and prevent the incursion underscores the toll of prioritizing internal battles over external preparedness. For Netanyahu, the Hamas attacks created a political avalanche.

Likud, already sliding in popularity because of the protests, became the epicenter of public rage over the military and intelligence failures. Polls conducted shortly after October 7 showed Likud’s projected Knesset seats plummeting from 30 to between 15 and 17—a catastrophic decline for Israel’s ruling party.  

The aftershock and Netanyahu's partial recovery

Though Netanyahu’s popularity initially cratered following the October 7 disaster, the subsequent military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria allowed him to regain some footing. As the Israeli government adopted a more aggressive posture toward Hamas and its allies, public discontent softened, particularly among right-leaning voters. By early May 2025, Likud's projected Knesset presence had rebounded to 22-25 seats in most reputable polls, bringing it back to the status of Israel’s largest single party.

However, this recovery remains fragile. Netanyahu’s inability to form a stable coalition persists, as opposition parties—with the potential support of Arab factions—hold the upper hand in most polling scenarios. Likud's decline is especially pronounced in the centrist and center-right segments of the electorate, where dissatisfaction with Netanyahu remains entrenched.  

Enter Naftali Bennett: The specter of the new right

In this climate of discontent, a new political force is emerging, one that may upend Netanyahu’s decades-long dominance over the Zionist right. A significant portion of Likud’s traditional voter base has grown disillusioned and begun looking for alternatives, creating an opening for new leadership.  

Initially, many of Likud’s defectors turned to Benny Gantz, viewing the centrist politician as a safe pair of hands during the war cabinet’s formation. However, Gantz’s reluctance to openly criticize Netanyahu, combined with his centrist credentials, has alienated conservative voters who now seek a right-wing alternative. Among the potential beneficiaries of this shift, Yisrael Beiteinu saw a modest resurgence, but it is Naftali Bennett who looms largest.  

Once a loyal ally of Netanyahu and later his fiercest critic, Bennett has made no secret of his desire to return to politics. In April 2025, he formally registered a new party, provisionally named "Bennett 2026," with the Israeli Ministry of Interior. Early polling suggests his return could dramatically reshape Israel’s political landscape.

In hypothetical scenarios, Bennett’s new party consistently outperforms Likud, leading by margins of 2-5 seats. More importantly, these polls indicate that a Bennett-led bloc could form a stable government without relying on the Arab parties, addressing a key source of instability in past coalitions.  

This would distinguish any potential Bennett-led coalition from the fragile "change government" he briefly co-led with Yair Lapid in 2021. In this iteration, Bennett’s positioning as a fresh alternative for right-wing voters could force a realignment within the bloc, paving the way for a generational shift in leadership.

Challenges ahead: A tenuous transition

While the prospect of Bennett’s resurgence marks a seismic shift in Israeli politics, the road ahead is anything but certain. Netanyahu may yet employ his mastery of political survival to recover further. Historically, he has proven adept at rallying support through external crises, and the ongoing tensions with Iran or escalations in Lebanon and Syria could once again bolster Likud.  

Internal maneuvering also poses risks. The ruling coalition’s apparent attempts to shield Netanyahu from accountability, such as preventing investigations into the October 7 failure, could further erode public trust in Likud. Efforts to replace senior figures like Shin Bet head Ronen Bar or Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara may deepen internal dissent and embolden Netanyahu's rivals.  

For Bennett to succeed, he will need to navigate these obstacles while also securing key alliances. Speculation around potential partnerships with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, including a formal merger, could amplify Bennett’s appeal. Similarly, the emergence of a formidable center-left bloc—led by figures like Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid, or Yair Golan—might compel Bennett to broaden his appeal and capture swing voters.  

Conclusion: The end of an era

The writing on the wall for Netanyahu is becoming clearer as Israeli politics adjusts to the reverberations of January 2023’s judicial reforms and October 2023’s military failures. Beneath the surface lies a growing consensus: the Zionist right is preparing for life after Netanyahu. While his departure may not be immediate or guaranteed, the conditions for his eventual political eclipse appear increasingly unavoidable.  

In this evolving reality, the rise of Naftali Bennett signals not just the end of Netanyahu’s monopoly but the potential birth of a "New Right" in Israel’s political sphere—one shaped by younger leaders, fresh priorities, and different strategies. Whether this era brings stability or introduces a new series of challenges remains to be seen, but for now, the page seems ready to turn.