TEHRAN – Due to higher life expectancy and lower birthrate, government officials are warning that Iran’s elderly population of senior citizens, aged 60 and over, will comprise a third of the population by 2050. Currently at 7.5 million, senior citizens account for less than 10 percent of the population.

Mehdi Malmir, the deputy head of Iran’s National Population Headquarters, predicted that the country will enter a phase of population aging between 2041-46. Malmir was quoted by PressTV that around 62 percent of female seniors and some 39 percent of male seniors in Iran live below the poverty line.

According to IRNA, the National Population Research Institute has found the country’s 86-million-strong population is aging five times faster than it is growing.

Pre-Revolution

Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there was a large number of foreign workers in Tehran. The high number of foreign diasporas was mainly due to a lack of a domestic educated and skilled workforce. However, the post-revolution era witnessed a rise in numerous universities and colleges. 

Another post-revolution trend was women’s entry into the workforce in larger numbers. 2020 statistics show the overall literacy rate of women in Iran has surpassed that of men, standing at 85 and 80 percent, respectively. As of 2005, 65 percent of Iran’s university students were women.

Today, Iran is not only self-sufficient in skilled manpower but has become an exporter of skilled workforce around the world. Despite the increase in the literacy rate, how will the Islamic Republic compensate for the lack of a young, skilled population when over thirty percent of the population would consist of senior citizens by 2050?

In 2023, some 70 percent of the population was aged 15-64, representing the working-age population. Approximately 23 percent of the population comprises children and adolescents under the age of 15. InIn 

In Iran, the minimum working age is 15 years old, according to the Labor Code. Senior citizens comprise only eight percent of the population.

Today, even with plenty of vibrant young people in Iran, there’s a lack of labor force, especially in the construction industry. In many cases, this shortage has been compensated for by millions of Afghans living in the country.

This brings another important factor contributing to lower birth rates: the cost of living. Indeed, due to the high inflation rate and the expensive real estate sector, many families are choosing to have a smaller family size. The current one-child trend is prevalent has many young Iranian families, many of whom also have to support their aging parents.

In 2013, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, announced his disagreement with the declining population rate. The leader pointed out that economic growth is a precondition for population growth, calling on the government to encourage people to have more children.

Many incentives have been introduced to encourage childbearing by the Iran Welfare Organization and the Ministry of Health. 

First, health care and medical benefits that are offered to childbearing mothers include:

--Free or subsidized prenatal care. Public healthcare centers provide free or low-cost check-ups, lab tests, ultrasounds, and supplements (like folic acid and iron);

--Insurance coverage: Most health insurance plans cover the majority of pregnancy-related expenses, including delivery (normal and cesarean); and

--Maternal health programs: Government health centers offer maternal training and support (breastfeeding, infant care, etc.).

Secondly, maternity leave and workplace rights:

--Maternity leave: Women are entitled to 9 months (270 days) of paid maternity leave, fully covered by social security.

-- Job security: Iranian labor law ensures a woman’s right to return to her job after maternity leave, and

-- Reduced working hours: In some sectors, pregnant women may receive reduced working hours or lighter duties.

Delayed marriage

Due to the financial constraints, late marriage is another new trend. Delayed marriage, along with extended intervals between childbirth, is another factor.

Significant strides have been made in infertility treatment. Today, 100 percent of infertility treatment costs are covered by health insurance, and Iran has emerged as a regional leader in this field. Under certain programs, especially for low-income families, a monthly allowance is provided for children.

The growing population of the elderly and declining birth rate is often considered a problem of the developed world, which compensates for the lack of a working population by an increasing number of migrants arriving from mainly third-world countries. However, Iran is a third-world country facing a similar scenario of an aging population. 

Afghan population

Afghan migrant workers, pilgrims, and merchants, who settled in Iran over the years, had by the early 20th century. However, the first large wave of Afghan citizens came as refugees or asylum seekers after the start of the Soviet-Afghan War in 1979.

According to UNHCR, some four million Afghans live in Iran. Figures cited by Iranian officials are much higher, with some estimates reaching eight million. Tehran has started the repatriation procedure for undocumented Afghan workers. In the past two years, Tehran has deported two million mainly undocumented Afghans. Such expulsion campaigns of primarily Afghan nationals should not threaten documented Afghan workers.

IRNA quoted Nader Yar-Ahmadi, the head of the National Organization of Migration, as saying, “Students whose parents do not have legal permission to reside, vulnerable women heads of households, children with an Iranian parent, and those who have a job code are allowed to live in the country.” However, students whose parents do not have legal permission to reside in the country have to return to Afghanistan by July 6.

Last but not least, there should be special provisions of birthright for the Afghans who were born in Iran and know nothing about their homeland of Afghanistan. According to Iranian law, being born in Iran does not grant Iranian citizenship. Identity-wise, these children are more Iranian than Afghan. Such birthright provisions are prevalent in many parts of the world, including most Western countries, like Canada and Sweden.

To boost the declining birthrate, the government has set up policies to absorb some of the over one million new Afghans who entered Iran following the Taliban takeover in 2021. There needs to be a more transparent set of legal procedures that would absorb the documented skilled Afghan workers. It is estimated that some 2.6-3 million documented Afghans reside in Iran.

Workers from Afghanistan are a source of hardworking young laborers who are ready to work in conditions that Iranian laborers will not. Indeed, without their contribution in the construction industry, the price of real estate would be higher than today’s already exorbitant rates. 

The government should facilitate the stay of documented Afghan migrant workers and their families in order to address the aging population, and society should be encouraged to welcome their contribution to the economy of the country and their assimilation into society. For that to happen, the Afghan workers deserve fair wages, dignity, safety, and job security.

Complete absorption of documented and skilled Afghan laborers in the society will inevitably help with population growth in the short term and the aging population in the long run.

Photo: The young Afghan diaspora can also address Iran’s aging population demographics.