By Soheila Zarfam

Tehran’s strategic calculus: Why pressure on the IAEA leads to Iran’s nuclear acceleration  

June 12, 2025 - 23:53

TEHRAN - The June 12th resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors marks a critical juncture in the long-running diplomatic dispute between Western capitals and Tehran over the country's peaceful nuclear program. 

While the resolution was passed with the support of the United States and three European countries (France, Germany, and the UK), Tehran views it not as a technical finding but as the continuation of a politically motivated pressure campaign—one that, in Iran’s view, has persistently undermined diplomatic efforts and fueled escalating tensions. 

Iran’s swift and calculated response—expanding its nuclear capabilities at secure sites—reflects a strategic logic shaped by what Tehran sees as Western noncompliance and the failure of diplomatic approaches.  

Interpreting the resolution: A political maneuver, not a technical necessity  

From Iran’s perspective, this resolution is a "repetitive event" and a familiar tactic in the West’s playbook, prioritizing political pressure over genuine technical dialogue. Officials in Tehran argue that citing so-called unresolved issues—some of which date back to before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—serves as a pretext to politicize the IAEA’s work. The resolution’s focus on Iran’s alleged "failures to meet its obligations" and the IAEA’s "inability to provide assurances" about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program is seen not as an impartial assessment but as a framing device to justify further pressure.  

Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Atomic Energy Organization swiftly dismissed the resolution as "politically motivated" and "lacking any technical or legal basis." This stance stems from the belief that the real objective is not resolving outstanding safeguards issues but creating leverage to punish Iran for its nuclear advances—advancements that Tehran insists have been accelerated by the West’s failed policies.  

Strategic response: Calculated escalation for deterrence  

Iran’s reaction was neither impulsive nor merely symbolic. The announcement of a new, secure enrichment facility and the replacement of first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the heavily fortified underground Fordow site with advanced IR-6 machines are significant technical steps. This move sends a deliberate signal of Iran’s capability and resolve.  

Fordow’s selection is strategically critical. Its deep underground location makes it virtually impervious to military strikes, turning it into a secure stronghold for Iran’s most advanced nuclear technology. By upgrading capabilities at this site, Iran is not just increasing its enrichment capacity—it is reinforcing its strategic deterrence. Tehran sees this as a necessary defensive measure, a direct consequence of a diplomatic environment where Iran’s rights and security cannot be guaranteed by agreements alone.  

Legal and diplomatic framework of Iran's move

To understand Iran’s position, its interpretation of the JCPOA itself is key. Tehran maintains that its post-2019 nuclear advancements do not constitute a violation but rather "compensatory measures" legally justified under Articles 26 and 36 of the deal, which allow Iran to suspend its commitments in whole or in part if other parties fail to uphold theirs.  

Iranian officials argue that the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 and the subsequent failure of the three European nations to deliver promised economic benefits—evidenced by the ineffectiveness of mechanisms like INSTEX and unmet "Transition Day" obligations in October 2023—amounted to a fundamental breach of the agreement. From this perspective, Iran’s decision to reduce its commitments was a lawful exercise of its rights under the JCPOA, taken only after a year of "strategic patience" and the absence of tangible economic relief.

This legal framework redefines Iran’s nuclear expansion not as defiance but as a rules-based response to noncompliance by the other side.  

Nuclear Capability as strategic leverage in the post-JCPOA era  

The sustained pressure campaign by the West has cemented a key strategic lesson in Tehran: Diplomatic agreements without strong enforcement mechanisms are unreliable, while indigenous technical capabilities provide tangible deterrence and critical negotiating leverage. Thus, Iran’s nuclear program has become a strategic asset whose "breakout potential" has fundamentally altered regional power dynamics and created a formidable shield against military threats.  

Moreover, Iran views the potential activation of the "snapback" mechanism with strategic skepticism. While the three European countries may present it as a last resort, their legal authority to trigger it expires in October 2025. This creates a deadline that pressures not just Iran but all parties. Tehran has made clear that such a move would be a point of no return, likely prompting drastic measures—including a possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This transforms the snapback from a mere threat into a high-stakes gamble with unpredictable consequences for global nonproliferation norms.  

A Predictable cycle of pressure and advancement  

The IAEA’s recent resolution and Iran’s response are the predictable outcomes of a flawed pressure-based strategy. From Tehran’s perspective, its actions are a logical and strategic response to a diplomatic process that has failed to deliver on its commitments. As long as core issues—sanctions, necessary guarantees, and reciprocal compliance—remain unresolved, the cycle of pressure and nuclear advancement is likely to persist. Iran remains confident in its ability to withstand pressure and safeguard its sovereign rights through technical and strategic resilience.

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