TEHRAN – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared belated and euphoric as he addressed a camera on June 13, claiming he had averted a "nuclear holocaust" by attacking two of Iran's nuclear sites, assassinating its top military officials and nuclear scientists, and targeting the country's infrastructure.

12 days later, when the war had ended, he made the same remarks with a less jaunty expression. He said he had achieved a “great victory” by dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for joining his deadly campaign and dropping his own bombs on Iranian facilities. Trump, too, has been calling the war a victory based on the fact that Iran’s nuclear program has been “obliterated”.

But now, more than a week after the fighting ceased on June 24th at the behest of Washington and Tel Aviv, the facts and justifications presented by the two leaders simply aren't holding up. Several American media outlets have cast doubt on the possibility of completely destroying Iran's nuclear sites, the most critical of which are located underground and shielded by mountains. Most importantly, the whereabouts of Iran's hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium remain unknown. 

Furthermore, even if Trump and Netanyahu have succeeded in abolishing Iran's nuclear program, this wouldn't prevent the country from rebuilding it. If anything, Iranians would face a far easier path should they decide to pursue nuclear weapons, given their newfound distrust of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the significant increase in domestic calls for nuclear armament.

The consequences the U.S. and Israel had to face for launching a war on Iran were not insignificant either. Large swathes of Israeli cities in the occupied territories now lie in ruins, marking the first time settlers have experienced life in a warzone, despite having waged several wars against Arabs in the past seven decades. Moreover, Iran pounded the United States' most important military base in West Asia, the Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, one day after Americans struck the country’s nuclear sites. Iran launched twelve missiles at the base, six of which hit their target, a fact Trump consistently tries to deny.

Despite the surprising turn of events for international observers, the truth of the matter is that none of these results and consequences were really unforeseen for analysts and officials, who have been warning for years that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be dismantled, even if the U.S. and Israel manage to physically damage it at some point. Also, Trump and Netanyahu most certainly knew that Iran has a large arsenal of sophisticated missiles, and that it has enough to consistently hit Israel for several months. 

This all begs a crucial question: Why did Trump and Netanyahu initiate a war they knew would not dismantle Iran's nuclear program? The answer, quite simply, is that their true objectives lay elsewhere.

The fantasy of replicating Syria in Iran

In December of 2024, forces of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Syria’s capital Damascus, essentially putting an end to the government of President Bashar al-Assad, 24 years and five months after he rose to power.

Before his fall, Assad had weathered trials few rulers in the region have ever faced. He spent over a decade battling Daesh terrorists, successfully driving the majority of them from the country throughout the 2010s. He managed to keep his government functioning despite crippling U.S. sanctions that decimated Syria's economy and created widespread shortages. Most recently, he had been welcomed back into the fold by Arab leaders, slowly but surely returning to the international stage after being shunned by many Arab countries in 2011.

Yet this government, which had endured so much, collapsed with surprising ease in December. To everyone's astonishment, even the Syrian Arab Army, the much-vaunted force built over the course of 70 years, could not contend with a group of terrorists imported from China and Central Asia. The Syrian Army wasn’t less equipped than the HTS, nor was it outnumbered; it simply did not receive orders to engage.

Following the HTS's formation of a semi-government in Syria, and once the dust had settled, regional media outlets that had maintained contact with the previous state reported that a significant number of Syrian Army commanders, as well as key ministers and associates of Assad, had been bought off by the U.S. and Israel through Arab and Turkish intermediaries. Those who remained loyal to Assad ultimately fled when they realized that the president himself had no intention of staying. Assad now resides in Russia, many of his former commanders now work for the HTS, and his ministers have either vanished or have turned against him. A small number of those who stayed and fought are also believed to be dead. 

As the war on Iran began, many speculated that Israel's objective was to replicate its strategy with Hezbollah: decapitation. The argument was that the regime believed that by assassinating Iran's top military leaders, it could indefinitely delay any retaliation and then seize the opportunity to devastate large swathes of Iran, eliminating any remaining commanders and officials. Ultimately, Israel would be left with a mere shell of a government in Iran, devoid of any real control over the country.

Back then, some of the information we possess today was unavailable. We now know that after assassinating generals and scientists on June 13, Israel contacted a large number of Iranian political and military officials, telling them that they should announce they were no longer part of the Islamic Republic or face death for themselves and their families. The Washington Post even published the audio of one such phone call, in which the unnamed official was instructed to send a video to Israel announcing his leave. Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has confirmed he was one of these contacted people. According to unofficial reports, around 2000 officials received the calls. 

The idea was that the individuals would either side with Israel or simply flee Iran, mirroring the events in Syria. In doing so, Iran's formidable military capabilities would remain untapped, allowing Israel and the U.S. to topple the government. Unlike Syria, there was no need for a figure like Al-Jolani, as the ultimate goal was to disintegrate Iran, creating new governments in several provinces, the Tehran Times understands through its sources. 

This plan was actually hinted at in the video message Netanyahu released on June 13. "We have indications that senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags. They sense what's coming," he declared. Shortly thereafter, the Israeli regime disseminated a video purporting to show Tehran’s Mehrabad airport, with black cars heading toward a plane. "See how they are running away," a female voice stated in the background. The caption accompanying the video circulating on social media claimed it depicted Iranian officials fleeing the country. The video was, of course, a fabrication aimed at stoking fear among the political and military dignitaries of Iran. 

Did it before, but can't do it again 

In the end, Iranian officials remained loyal and committed. The military swiftly appointed new commanders within twelve hours, and all political factions, alongside the population, rallied behind Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who vowed to make the enemy "miserable." Despite Israeli and American threats of assassination, Ayatollah Khamenei delivered on that promise. 

We are now left with another question: Why did Netanyahu and Trump think they could pull off their Syrian moves in Iran? The answer: They'd already done it before, in 1953.

In 1953, the Iranian government was toppled by a U.S.- and British-backed coup that removed Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized Iran's oil industry. Kermit Roosevelt Jr., a CIA operative and grandson of U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, arrived in Iran that year with a suitcase containing millions of dollars. He used this money to bribe key figures in the military, media, and clergy, securing their support for the coup. He also funded anti-Mossadegh propaganda, paid protestors to stage riots, and financed pro-Shah groups to destabilize Mossadegh’s government. Mossadegh was ousted, arrested, and spent the rest of his days under house arrest. 

Fast forward to the 2025 fight with Iran, and Netanyahu seemed to be dreaming about Roosevelt's suitcase again. Except this time, the luggage was supposed to contain the belongings of Iranian officials. 

The final - and most crucial - question remains: Why can't the West and its colonial project, Israel, accept that Iran has fundamentally changed since 1979 and will not be coerced through force, threats, or incentives?