GOA, India - Trump and Netanyahu must have dreamed wild dreams of an across-the-board victory, almost-instant victory after launching the war against Iran. Alas, the war surges, and Israel is under attack with citizens pleading for a stoppage. Fighter jets in U.S. bases in Persian Gulf states have fled in fear.

Considering the muscle Iran has shown and its resilience, the chances of U.S. bases relocating in the Persian Gulf are, but remote.

Fighting massive stockpiles with depleted, depleting stockpiles

Israel and the U.S. have some common bad news. Their stockpiles are depleting rapidly, while Iran has enough and more. Trump has started to announce that he was receiving offers of a ceasefire from Iran. That’s a load of BS. Iran has not time and intent to talk to the liar Trump, and the thoughtless, mindless Netanyahu.
A ceasefire may be a good idea but the bloated egos of Israeli-U.S. leaders have sent them packing into a quiet corner looking for fibs to tell their people. Most Americans will castoff the pill that Trump offers that he had brought Iran down to his knees. He might have killed Ayatollah Khamenei, but that act alone has brought Iranians into significantly deeper unity and Khamenei is now a martyr characterized by his courage and loyalty to his people. He did not hide in a bunker as the cowardly Netanyahu does every time a siren goes off. Nor did Ayatollah Khamenei hide for cover. He worked where he always did for his people.

The coward and the sinful, corrupt liar, Trump, is in a room trying to invent fairy tales about how they had actually obliterated the regime and aroused anger among the people. Even fairy tales must sound interesting and be reasonably realistic. In his cabinet, Trump has only a set of nincompoops who cannot reel out a plausible theory. The world is not listening to American propaganda except the senseless corporate media who are dictated by their bosses to churn out lies, lies, and more lies. And, as in every country around the world, there are the jesters who cheer on with each lie wanting more such nonsense.

Reliable Al Jazeera reports illustrate that the U.S.-Israel air campaign has entered its sixth day, with strikes targeting Iranian internal security, nuclear sites, and leadership. Iran has responded by launching massive waves of drones and missiles, targeting Israel and U.S. assets across the Persian Gulf.

Israel faces multiple barrages from Hezbollah

Iran has conducted multiple missile barrages against Israel, with tons of debris falling in the Tel Aviv area, causing injuries. Hezbollah has also targeted Haifa with “high-quality missiles”. U.S. personnel and citizens are leaving the region due to significant threats to U.S. bases and embassies. The U.S. embassy in Kuwait was reportedly struck by drones.

High-end interceptor missiles (e.g., THAAD, Patriots) are being used in high numbers. Reports indicate that over 150 THAAD interceptors were fired by the US to counter Iranian missiles, representing a significant portion of the available inventory.

The cost of interceptors is significantly higher than the Iranian drones and missiles they target, making it a sustainable strategy for Iran but not for the U.S. or Israel. Estimates suggest Iran has thousands of missiles capable of striking throughout the region. The core concern for the U.S. and Israel is the potential to run out of interceptors, as Iran has more missiles than the allies have interceptors.

Israel is prioritizing the destruction of Iranian TEL launchers and production facilities to shrink the threat, while Iran focuses on using high-volume, “first punch” attacks.

Untruth social!

Trump has publicly stated that U.S. stocks are high and sufficient, although experts warn that a prolonged conflict could severely strain U.S. munitions needed for other global contingencies, such as in the Indo-Pacific. Prolonged, intense exchanges with Iran are rapidly depleting U.S. and Israeli interceptor missile stockpiles, with some estimates suggesting critical shortages if fighting continues for 10 or more days. Iran is believed to possess a large, sustainable inventory of ballistic missiles (over 3,000) and drones, while U.S.-Israeli interceptor production cannot keep pace with demand.

An Al Jazeera report shows how this is turning into a “salvo competition” or “war of attrition” centered on who runs out of precision-guided weapons first. Reliable reports clearly indicate that in terms of sheer numbers, Iran is way ahead and will have a huge surplus of missiles after the U.S. and Israel have used up theirs. Iran is utilizing a vast, diverse, and largely hidden stockpile, while Israel and the U.S. rely on superior but depleting, high-cost, multi-layered air defense systems.

Major shipping lines blocked off

Iran has maintained its ability to strike and has closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to attack any vessel attempting to pass. Iran claims it has not yet used its most advanced weaponry. That’s coming.

Sea Time Maritime News reports that major shipping lines are pausing trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East, effectively restricting traffic to the canal. The ongoing disruptions since late 2023 have cost Egypt billions in transit fees, and the renewed insecurity dashed hopes for a full 2026 recovery of the route. Major carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have paused services following renewed tensions, with the Red Sea-Suez route remaining high-risk for commercial shipping. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and others are re-routing services around the Cape of Good Hope instead of utilizing the Suez Canal, causing significant delays and increased shipping costs.

Oil prices hit global economy

Oil prices have soared, and major air carriers have suspended flights in the region. The surrounding Red Sea security threat creates a de facto closure for many container ships and cargo vessels. In March 2026 alone, intensifying conflict in the Middle East, Brent crude has risen above $82 per barrel and touching $85, driven by fears of supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz. The conflict, involving U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran, has triggered a significant risk premium. Analysts warn that if the conflict continues, it could push prices further up, potentially forcing central banks into a difficult position of fighting inflation while trying to prevent recession.

Evaluating Iranian power

The ongoing military conflict between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran has highlighted significant complexities in evaluating Iranian power. While the U.S. and Israel possess superior, high-technology air power, Iran has demonstrated a capacity for unexpected, asymmetric, and disruptive retaliation that has challenged initial, perhaps under-calculated, assessments of their military strength.

Again, I quote from Al Jazeera: “While the U.S.-Israel strikes have aimed to ‘pulverize’ Iran’s military capacity, the ability of Tehran to retaliate suggests a complex, evolving, and highly resilient military force that has forced a re-evaluation of its power”.

While Iran’s conventional air force and defense systems are weak compared to the combined U.S.-Israel force, Iran has effectively leveraged a large, diverse missile arsenal (2,000–3,000 missiles) and drone capabilities for “asymmetric deterrence”. Despite suffering damage from joint U.S.-Israel strikes in June 2025, Iran managed to launch major, retaliatory strikes on Israeli urban centers and U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf region in 2026, showing a greater ability to fight back than some analysts predicted.

Iran’s ability to “catch the mightier U.S. and Israel on the back foot” stems from its strategic use of drones, missiles, and regional resistance groups, rather than direct, force-on-force engagement. It is a question of strategic miscalculation and overconfidence. While initial 2025 assessments highlighted the limited damage caused by Iranian strikes at that time, the 2026 conflict saw a more “structurally aggressive” doctrine from Tehran, which analysts suggest may not have been fully anticipated. Iran’s vast numerical advantages in personnel (610,000 active) and its ability to threaten energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have provided it with the ability to withstand a longer, high-intensity conflict.

Iran’s civilizational bases

The joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign significantly miscalculated the resilience of Iran’s civilization bases, nationalism, and ideological commitment. The strategy, which relied on rapid, high-level strikes (including the targeting of leadership) to induce regime collapse, failed to account for the depth of Iranian societal and ideological cohesion. The attacks, intended to fracture the regime, instead triggered a surge in Iranian nationalism and reinforced the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The U.S.-Israeli strategy focused on speed and surprise (Operation Epic Fury/Rising Lion), ignoring the need for long-term operational sustainability and ground-level realities.

Iranian leaders, such as Ali Larijani, specifically touted their “6,000-year-old civilization” and vowed a prolonged defense, signaling a refusal to break under external pressure. Contrary to expectations of a quick collapse, Iran launched a massive, coordinated response against Israel and U.S. bases, even shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.

The 2026 conflict has underlined a clash between Western-backed military superiority and a deeply rooted, ideological, and civilization-based resistance.
The strikes fueled a “martyrdom complex” that strengthened, rather than weakened, the ideological resolve of the ruling system – a factor completely out of the pale of Western pragmatism and its optical limits. The assassination of top figures like Ayatollah Khamenei on Feb. 28, the Iranian power structure did not collapse, but rather swiftly shifted to interim leadership without an internal power struggle. 

Miscalculating propaganda-based victories

Iran’s led “Axis of Resistance” was able to project power despite losing key leaders, demonstrating that the organizational culture and ideological commitment were deeply embedded. The “catastrophic miscalculation” stemmed from a reliance on biased intelligence and an underestimation of Iranian nationalism, transforming a planned swift victory into a potential long-term, high-cost conflict.

The view that propaganda, including that originating from or circulating within the U.S., relies on misleading information, half-truths, or outright lies is a recognized perspective in media studies and political analysis. The use of such techniques is generally understood not as a sign of strength, but as a method for controlling narratives, engineering consent, or manipulating public opinion, particularly when it resorts to emotional appeals over rational argument.

Propaganda often thrives by constructing a “pseudo-reality,” using fabricated, exaggerated, or emotional narratives (such as fearmongering) to bypass objective thinking. In political contexts, this can include the repetition of falsehoods -what some studies call the “illusory truth effect”— to make them seem credible.

While the U.S. prides itself on a free press, critics point out that the high degree of polarization and the influence of partisan media (e.g., MSNBC, Fox News) can lead to the proliferation of biased reporting and misinformation that acts as propaganda for specific, ideological perspectives.

Conclusion

This war was meant to be a spectacle of dominance; it has become a lesson in miscalculation. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu wagered on shock and awe, but awakened a nation anchored in history, sacrifice, and strategic patience. Iran has demonstrated that resilience, numbers, and civilizational cohesion can blunt even the most sophisticated arsenals. What was scripted as a swift victory now stands exposed as a costly, humbling stalemate with consequences the architects can no longer control.