TEHRAN- A member of the board of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) explaining three possible scenarios for the economic situation in the post-war period, said: Two months have passed since the military aggression of the American-Zionist coalition against Iran, and now all countries are affected by its consequences, such that the Strait of Hormuz has shown that it impacts not only the countries of the region but the entire global energy cycle, including America.

Keyvan Kashefi, speaking to IRNA about the damage the global economy has suffered due to the military aggression of the American-Zionist coalition against Iran, stated: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused great harm to energy consumers, especially in Europe and East Asia. Initially, countries that depend on Persian Gulf oil and supplied their needed oil and energy from countries such as Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and even Iran have been affected.

Stating that a wide range of countries, including China, South Korea, and Japan in the East, and some European countries in the West, have faced problems in the past two months following the war against Iran, he added: These problems are not limited to countries that directly obtained oil and energy from the West Asia; other countries are now also affected by the rise in global oil prices.

He emphasized: The performance of the Strait of Hormuz so far has shown that any development at this point does not only affect countries that get their oil from there; rather, the entire global energy cycle faces shortages.

Kashefi referred to gasoline and diesel prices in America and said: In the early weeks of the war, Trump believed that because America is not dependent on Persian Gulf oil, it would not be harmed by the price increases resulting from rising oil prices. But now the reality is that the entire world is affected by it — though it may be greater in some countries — and it can be said that the position of the Strait of Hormuz in the global economy has made it one of the most fundamental issues in Iran-US negotiations.

The member of the Iran Chamber board, speaking about the outlook for the economic situation in the coming months, stated: We have no more than three scenarios. The first scenario, which has a low probability of occurring, is that we witness war once again. This situation is in no one's interest, only complicates matters, and could even push oil prices above $150 per barrel in the markets.

Kashefi continued: The second scenario relates to the negotiations currently underway — that the negotiations reach a definitive resolution to resolve the differences between Iran and America, and these disputes end, such that investors from various countries can be present in Iran's economy, similar to what we saw during the implementation of the JCPOA.

He described the third scenario as the worst possible situation — neither war nor peace — and said: In this case, sanctions will remain, and we will have to rebuild the damages caused by the war under sanctions.

The member of the Iran Chamber board, stating that calm in the global economy under neither-war-nor-peace conditions is achieved when the Strait of Hormuz is opened for ship passage, said: As long as this is not done, tension exists, and the global economy will be affected by it.

Kashefi emphasized that uncertainty in the economy, inflation, and rising unemployment are among the damages of the economy and the continuation of neither-war-nor-peace conditions, and said: The turmoil caused by the war must subside so that markets can gradually adapt themselves to the new conditions.

MA