TEHRAN- According to oil industry experts, Iran's national CNG network, with 2,365 active stations, is a trump card that can reduce gasoline consumption by up to 24 million liters per day without spending a single additional rial.

Following the joint US-Israel military attacks that began on February 28, 2026, a significant portion of Iran's refining infrastructure has been targeted. Despite officials' efforts to produce and supply the country's needed fuel, these attacks—which specifically targeted advanced processing units of refineries and may have significantly reduced the country's gasoline production capacity—will likely confront the nation with a serious fuel supply challenge in the near future.

The questions circulating in public forums and social media these days are simple yet vital: "Will gasoline be rationed?" and "Do we face difficult days ahead in fuel supply?" This report attempts to explain, with a clear, documented, and calm perspective, the dimensions of this hidden energy war for the noble people of Iran and to answer what measures have been devised to get through this period.

* Dissecting an economic assassination: What exactly did the enemy target?

To analyze the situation properly, we need to see what was behind these attacks. Field investigations and expert reports indicate that the enemy's strategy in this phase of the imposed war has been "smart paralysis," not "complete destruction."

Based on information published in reputable domestic media, including the Etemad newspaper, oil wells, offshore platforms, and main crude oil pipelines have been spared serious damage. Iran still has oil. But the Achilles' heel lies elsewhere: the advanced and bottleneck units inside refineries—sections such as massive distillation towers, complex catalytic units (where high-quality gasoline is produced), heat exchangers, and control rooms (the brains of the refinery). This is targeted industrial assassination. The enemy wants us to have valuable raw materials but be unable to convert them into strategic products like gasoline and diesel.

This situation is like a farmer who has quality wheat but whose millstones are broken. He is not hungry, but he has trouble converting wheat into flour. This is precisely the managed crisis that our domestic specialists have been prepared to deal with from day one.

* What do the numbers say? From a 10-million-liter deficit to a 70-million-liter warning

Before these attacks, Iranians consumed an average of 130 to 135 million liters of gasoline per day. On busy days and travel seasons, this figure even exceeded 147 million liters. On the other side, the country's total gasoline production capacity, including refineries such as Persian Gulf Star, Shazand, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, and Tehran, was about 114 to 124 million liters per day. This means that even on normal days with no war, we naturally had a production deficit of 10 to 20 million liters, which was compensated from strategic reserves or managed imports.

Now, with the aggressive attacks on some refineries and an estimated 30 to 50 percent damage to production capacity, the country's refining capacity has likely dropped to about 60 to 80 million liters per day. A simple subtraction shows that if consumption continues at the same rate, we may face a daily deficit of 50 to 70 million liters. This number could mean long lines, problems in public transportation, and damage to the production and distribution cycle of goods.

* Why won't gasoline prices rise? A frank answer to a public concern

In such a situation, the first prescription classical economists offer is "raising prices to reduce demand." But is this prescription effective for today's Iran? The frank and straightforward answer is a big "no." Senior economic officials and social experts have concluded that in wartime conditions, given the economic pressure the noble people of Iran are already enduring, tampering with gasoline prices is not only ineffective but could also bring unforeseen social consequences. The late Leader of the Revolution also always emphasized caring for people's livelihoods and avoiding price shocks.

Therefore, the government's strategy is designed around "non-price demand management." This means controlling consumption without making gasoline more expensive—a delicate administrative art. This includes smart and fair rationing, serious crackdown on smugglers, and mobilizing the public transportation fleet.

* Iran's secret weapon: Gas that shields as a gasoline substitute

But among all these measures, Iran has a rare trump card: the national CNG (compressed natural gas) network. Today, across vast Iran, there are 2,365 active CNG stations, capable of delivering over 40 million cubic meters of gas to vehicles daily. However, our current usage of this vast network is only 16 million cubic meters per day, meaning we have an unused capacity of 24 million cubic meters—untouched.

In other words, without needing to build a single new refinery, Iran can replace the equivalent of 24 million liters of gasoline per day with gas. Producing that amount at a refinery would require billions of dollars in investment and years of time. Yet it is already present in the country's infrastructure, needing only a national resolve to activate it.

* Turning threat into opportunity

What happened to the country's oil industry these days was a deep wound—a wound from the long-standing enmity of enemies who cannot bear to see Iran's progress. But the phoenix rises from the flames. Our nation has shown throughout the 40-plus-year history of the Islamic Revolution that it is precisely within such threats and pressures that talents flourish and new opportunities are created. Today, the vast CNG network and the capability of domestic engineers for rapid reconstruction represent an exceptional opportunity to complete the puzzle of self-sufficiency and break free from gasoline dependence. Careful consumption, smart use of public transport, and national unity will be the keys to navigating this historic turn.

EF/MA