The next round, beyond West Asia
The IRGC warned that any renewed US or Israeli aggression would push the conflict beyond West Asia
TEHRAN - Iran has warned the United States of far-reaching consequences in the event of any renewed act of aggression, amid President Donald Trump’s repeated military threats and deadlines.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Wednesday that any renewed aggression against Iran would expand the current conflict far beyond the West Asia region.
“Although they (the US and Israel) attacked us using all the capabilities of two of the world’s most expensive armies, we did not employ all the capacities of the Islamic Revolution against them,” the statement said.
“If aggression against Iran is repeated, the regional war that had been promised will this time extend beyond the region, and our crushing blows will cast you into ruin in places you cannot imagine,” it added.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said Iran has “many more surprises” if the US and Israel renew the war on Iran.
“Months after initiation of war on Iran, US Congress acknowledges loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions. Our powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as 1st to strike down a touted F-35. With lessons learned and knowledge we gained, return to war will feature many more surprises.,” he wrote on X on Tuesday.
According to the US Congress report referenced by Araghchi, the US Air Force has lost dozens of aircraft during the recent war launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28. The destroyed or damaged aircraft include several F-15E Strike Eagle warplanes and one F-35A Lightning II.
During the 39 days of war, which was paused by a ceasefire on April 8, Iran not only targeted Israeli strategic and military sites but also struck US military bases in the Persian Gulf region.
Iran says Washington’s excessive demands are the main obstacle to diplomatic efforts aimed at permanently ending the war, and that the US must agree to certain conditions to move forward.
Trump’s threats ring hollow
Over the past weeks, Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran with renewed war and has each time retreated from those threats.
On Monday, Trump said he was postponing a military strike on Iran planned for Tuesday. He said he made the decision at the request of Persian Gulf Arab states, because “serious negotiations are now taking place.” However, The Wall Street Journal reported that these states were unaware of any plan for an imminent attack on Iran.
A US military official also told the New York Times that Iranian commanders have meticulously analyzed the flight patterns of American fighter jets and bombers. Referring to Iran’s previous downing of advanced US aircraft, the official noted that American flight tactics have become increasingly predictable, allowing Iran to defend against them with enhanced capabilities and foresight.
At least based on US media reports, Trump stepped back from attacking Iran due to concerns over the far-reaching consequences of a new war. The US is also aware that renewed conflict with Iran would increase economic pressure domestically, including rising inflation and fuel prices.
Global repercussions of renewed aggression
Yemen’s Ansarullah has already warned that any expansion of the war against Iran by a US or Israeli military escalation could lead to the activation of new fronts in the Red Sea region, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Ansarullah has described the strait as a strategic maritime chokepoint that could be used as leverage in a wider regional confrontation. In this context, Ansarullah officials have indicated that restricting or disrupting navigation through Bab al-Mandab remains an option if hostilities intensify, presenting it as part of a broader deterrence strategy alongside Iran and other allied regional resistance groups.
Some analysts argue that if Washington launches another attack, Tehran could expand the scope of confrontation beyond the Middle East by targeting American bases in other regions.
They also suggest that Iran should weigh limited preemptive strikes against US forces and installations in the Persian Gulf in response to Washington’s naval blockade of its ports — a measure they say is designed to intensify economic pressure and stir domestic unrest.
According to reported intelligence assessments, Israel has conveyed to the United States that sustaining the blockade could generate internal instability in Iran within two months. The same assessments indicate that, in the event of a renewed war, US operations would likely focus on Iran’s critical infrastructure — including electricity grids, fuel depots and natural gas facilities — in an effort to tighten the siege and deepen economic strain, ultimately with the aim of fueling domestic turbulence. Against this backdrop, a preemptive Iranian strike is seen as a move capable of disrupting its adversaries’ calculations and reshaping the strategic equation.
Taken together, these scenarios reinforce Tehran’s warnings that any renewed escalation would carry consequences extending well beyond the immediate theater of conflict. They underscore the risk of disruption to vital maritime corridors and global energy flows. Iran’s asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of hostilities further heightens the stakes, as heightened tensions there are widely seen as a trigger for significant global economic repercussions.
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