The enemy’s miscalculation and the lesson of deterrent unity

May 12, 2026 - 21:16

Javan, in an article, examined why the United States and Israel miscalculated in their conflict with Iran. It wrote that before the 40‑day war, Netanyahu’s team considered Iran so weak that they believed it could not control the Strait of Hormuz in a potential conflict.

But what seems to have misled them more than anything was not the military dimension, but the political and social one—especially Iran’s domestic issues. They assumed that Iran, particularly after the bitter events of recent months, had become internally fractured and that visible societal divisions had weakened the country from within. Based on this assumption, although Iran possessed the necessary military power, it believed it could not use it due to internal weakness, that its political and social resilience had diminished, and that it would lose a war. The major lesson of this episode is that real deterrence is formed not first in arsenals and combat units, but in the “enemy’s mind”; and the key to shaping this psychological deterrence is national unity and the intelligent management of perception.

Change in Iran’s military doctrine

Resalat analyzed the shift in Iran’s military doctrine. According to the paper, the recent suspicious and coordinated attacks on Iran’s coastal infrastructure and oil fleet have acted as a catalyst, accelerating a major paradigm shift in the military and security doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Following these attacks on certain coastal areas and several Iranian oil tankers in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, tensions have reached an unprecedented peak. These attacks, which caused damage and injured several crew members, triggered a firm and coordinated response from Iran’s armed forces. Senior officials of the IRGC and the General Staff of the Armed Forces, through explicit and unprecedented statements, officially declared the end of the era of “strategic patience” and announced the beginning of a phase of active deterrence and reciprocal offensive response. The extensive deployment of naval, missile, and drone units in the region, along with increased reconnaissance drone flights, indicates that Iran’s finger is on the trigger and that any miscalculation could turn the Persian Gulf into a hellfire for its enemies.

Khorasan: Iran’s asymmetric warfare

Khorasan discussed the serious destruction of American bases by Iranian missiles and drones. It wrote that more than two months after the start of US and Israeli aggression, what has drawn the most attention from military analysts and international media is not merely the scale of the attacks, but the vulnerability of the US base network in the region. What has shifted the equation of this conflict, in the eyes of many analysts, is the comparison of capabilities and the practical results on the battlefield. The United States entered the confrontation with a massive military budget, aircraft carriers, an extensive satellite network, and the most advanced defense systems. Iran, however, relying on precise ballistic missiles, inexpensive yet effective drones, and a strategy of striking logistical weak points, managed to erode a significant portion of America’s deterrent infrastructure. The 40‑day war proved that in today’s world, even the most complex military networks are not completely immune to Iran’s asymmetric warfare.

Donya‑e‑Eqtesad: China’s policy in the Strait of Hormuz

Donya‑e‑Eqtesad examined China’s position regarding the Strait of Hormuz and wrote that a key factor shaping China’s stance is its extensive relations with the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. China’s economic ties with (P)GCC members reach about $300 billion annually, while its relations with Iran amount to only about one‑tenth of that. China simultaneously desires stability in Iran’s political system, and its oil purchases and certain diplomatic support at the UN contribute to this. However, it is unclear whether China is firmly committed to maintaining a minimum balance in the region. Moreover, Beijing’s priority of keeping open the routes necessary for its export‑driven economic development may push China further toward emphasizing its strategic policy of upholding the legal regime of international straits and expressing greater concern about the impact of any change in the Strait of Hormuz on other global waterways.

Sobh‑e‑No: Iran shattered Trump’s pride

No one is surprised anymore by the contradictions and provocations of US President Donald Trump. No event has exposed the absurdity of Trump’s “circus” as clearly as his war against Iran, initiated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Through a remarkable combination of patience and resilience—both during the 40‑day war before the ceasefire and in the subsequent political and negotiation arenas through message exchanges—Iran managed to break Trump’s excessive pride and narcissism, turning his claims of absolute victory into a farce. Neither the United States nor Israel achieved any significant victory, and the world was not deceived by attempts to conceal their failure.
 

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