TEHRAN – European countries could face significant shortages of medicines and essential pharmaceutical components if tensions surrounding Iran escalate and lead to a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to a recent analysis.

Citing a report from La Tribune, the analysis highlights Europe’s heavy reliance on supply chains originating in China and India, which account for 80% of the region’s pharmaceutical imports. These supply lines are increasingly destabilized by rising oil and gas prices. The potential slowdown of air transport routes across the West Asia and Asia further exacerbates the risk.

Denis Yünal, a representative of the economic research center CEPII, noted that while alternative delivery options exist, they are far more expensive. "The supply chains for a number of substances are so complex that, over time, this could lead to shortages," he explained.

The French insurance company Coface warns that common drugs like paracetamol and several antibiotics are primarily at risk. "Behind medicines that are sold for only a few euro cents lies a large-scale dependence on oil," stated Coface representative Joe Douillet. "When this system comes under pressure, some substances become physically unavailable."

The report adds that many critical components, including ethylene and paraffin, are supplied directly from Persian Gulf nations. 

Separately, Le Parisien has reported rising construction material prices in France linked to the same geopolitical instability, citing the Confederation of Small Businesses in the Construction Sector (Capeb).

In summary, the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with Iran poses a far-reaching threat that extends well beyond energy markets. Europe's pharmaceutical supply chain, heavily dependent on Asian manufacturing and Persian Gulf raw materials, remains dangerously vulnerable to disruption. 

While no immediate shortages have been declared, experts warn that the complexity and cost of rerouting supplies could trigger gradual but severe medicine deficits across the continent. Policymakers may need to accelerate efforts to diversify supply sources and bolster local production of critical pharmaceutical components to mitigate these risks. 

For now, the situation serves as a stark reminder of how geopolitical instability in one region can silently undermine public health in another.