TEHRAN — The apparent first combat use of a new US precision missile during the war against Iran has raised fresh concerns over the potential impact of advanced American weapons on civilian populations, with an investigation by Airwars finding evidence that the munition scattered lethal fragments across an area far wider than its publicly advertised fragmentation radius.

An Airwars analysis of three apparent Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) attacks in the southern Iranian city of Lamerd on February 28, the first day of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, found that one strike produced visible damage extending at least 170 meters from the estimated point of detonation. Civilians were reportedly killed at distances of up to more than 50 meters from the explosion.

According to the investigation, the attacks killed at least 21 civilians, including at least seven children and two women, while as many as 170 others were injured.

The findings are particularly significant because the PrSM is designed not simply to destroy a target through a conventional blast, but to detonate shortly before reaching the ground and disperse tens of thousands of metal pellets in a 360-degree pattern.

The weapon's fragmentation mechanism means that people, buildings and vehicles within its lethal or damaging range can be struck by high-velocity projectiles even if they are not located directly at the point of impact.

Airwars said the distinctive pattern left by the munition was visible across streets, buildings and vehicles in Lamerd. Rather than the large crater normally associated with many conventional missile strikes, the aftermath showed thousands of small impact marks consistent with the dispersal of fragmentation pellets.

A weapon designed for long-range precision

The PrSM is manufactured by Lockheed Martin and is launched from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. The company says the missile can strike targets at ranges of up to 500 kilometers, making it a significantly longer-range weapon than earlier systems employing similar fragmentation technology.

Each missile is reportedly capable of carrying approximately 180,000 pellets, although key technical details, including the exact size of its warhead and the distance its fragments can travel, have not been publicly disclosed.

The missile appears to be an evolution of the Alternate Warhead version of the US Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System. That weapon also disperses large numbers of pellets but has a reported range of about 70 kilometers, less than one-sixth that of the PrSM.

The apparent use of the PrSM in Iran therefore represents more than the deployment of another battlefield weapon. It demonstrates the extension of a fragmentation-based strike capability to considerably greater distances, while raising questions about how such a weapon can be employed safely in or near populated areas.

Airwars said neither the US Department of War nor Lockheed Martin has publicly specified the PrSM's fragmentation or lethal radius. By contrast, promotional material produced by Lockheed Martin appears to indicate a maximum fragmentation radius of roughly 50 meters. The damage documented in Lamerd was therefore more extensive than the radius suggested by the promotional material analyzed by Airwars.

Michael Meier, a former Special Assistant to the US Army Judge Advocate General for the Law of Armed Conflict, warned that the weapon's use in densely populated locations could create an inherent risk to civilians.
“You would be hard pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area,” Meier said, adding that if the lethality radius were around 100 meters, civilian casualties would be inevitable.

Three strikes in less than a minute

Airwars reconstructed the sequence of events using CCTV footage, images published by Iranian media and testimonies collected by journalists who visited the affected locations.

The investigation identified three separate strikes over a distance of roughly 550 meters in the Shahrak Isar and Tal-e Khandagh residential neighborhoods and at the Shahid Naimi sports hall. The strikes reportedly occurred within approximately 31 seconds.

The first strike hit Shahrak Isar at approximately 17:37:46. Airwars identified damage extending almost 80 meters from the estimated impact point. Masoumeh Monfared and her son, Abedin Gharibdoos, were reportedly killed outside their home, around 40 meters from the estimated epicenter.

Ten seconds later, another missile reportedly struck the Tal-e Khandagh neighborhood. Two-year-old Avina Barzegar was killed while playing in the yard of her home. A memorial marker identifies the location, which Airwars estimated to be approximately 50 meters from the missile's estimated point of detonation. The investigation identified observable pellet damage extending at least that far.

The third strike hit the Shahid Naimi sports hall at approximately 17:38:17. At least seven civilians were reportedly killed, most of them children.

Among the victims was 12-year-old Ilya Khatami, who was reportedly struck while attempting to flee after playing football. Another boy, Abdul Mosavar Rahmani, and football coach Mahmoud Najafi were also killed. Two teenage girls, Helma Ahmadizadeh and Elham Zaeri, were reportedly killed inside the sports center while practicing volleyball.

The investigation also identified damage at a learning center approximately 170 meters from the sports hall strike. Airwars described this as the furthest documented damage associated with the three attacks, although it cautioned that the actual radius could have been greater because of limitations in the available imagery.

Dispute over responsibility

The US military has denied responsibility for the Lamerd strikes. US Central Command argued that CCTV footage was consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.

However, damage analysis cited by Airwars from The New York Times challenged that assessment. Experts consulted in that analysis reportedly concluded that the pattern of destruction was inconsistent with a Hoveyzeh missile and instead identified the weapons as PrSMs, making the Lamerd attacks the missile's likely first known combat use.

The distinction is important because the physical evidence left at the sites corresponds to the PrSM's known operating concept. The missile reportedly detonates 15 to 20 meters above the ground, distributing fragments over a broad area rather than producing a single large crater.

Airwars also found no reports indicating that militants were killed or military infrastructure was struck at the three locations. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is located north of the sports hall, but the investigation found no evidence that it was the target of the attacks.

Meier stressed that the legality of a strike depends on assessing the military target, the anticipated effects of the weapon and whether expected civilian harm would be excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage.

He also questioned the apparent military rationale of the strike, noting that the IRGC compound remained standing and therefore asking whether it could have been considered a sufficiently high-value target to justify the potential effects of the weapon.

A weapon likely to shape future conflicts

The controversy surrounding the PrSM comes as the United States moves to substantially expand production of the weapon.

In July, the US Department of War announced an $8.4 billion contract with Lockheed Martin to accelerate PrSM production. Britain subsequently announced a deal to acquire the missiles as well.

The scale of investment suggests that the missile is expected to become an increasingly important component of US and allied long-range strike capabilities.

Yet the Lamerd strikes have placed a critical question at the center of the debate: whether a weapon capable of dispersing enormous numbers of lethal fragments across a wide area can be reliably employed in environments where civilian populations and military targets exist in close proximity.

For Iran, the findings add to concerns over the civilian consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign. Beyond the immediate casualties, they raise broader questions about the growing use of long-range precision weapons whose effects can extend considerably beyond their intended points of impact.

The central concern is therefore not simply the range or accuracy of the PrSM, but the consequences of deploying a highly destructive fragmentation weapon in populated areas. As the United States and its allies invest heavily in expanding such capabilities, the experience in Lamerd could become an important case in assessing whether claims of precision and deep-strike capability adequately account for the risks borne by civilians on the ground.