PARIS -- The world's richest countries, largely dependent on oil imports, could survive for several months using strategic reserves if U.S. military action in Iraq were to disrupt shipments, analysts said.

Oil markets are haunted by the specter of a possible break in oil exports from the Middle East if Washington were to launch an attack against Baghdad, sparking a quick jump in crude prices.

A study conducted by BNP-Paribas suggested that prices could shoot up as high as $40 or $50 a barrel if Washington were to invade Iraq, against about $25 currently in London and from $26 to $27 in New York.

Markets have already factored in a risk premium of two to three dollars a barrel, according to analysts.

Members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) could handle a supply cut of 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) over a six-month period, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In comparison, 2.5 million bpd disappeared from world oil markets for 30 days during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

The IEA, an OECD agency created after the 1973 oil crisis as a watchdog for oil-consuming nations, refused to release figures about strategic oil reserves held by the organization's 30 member states. But Klaus Jacoby, the agency's director of emergencies, told AFP: "We have on average crude oil reserves that would cover 114 days of net imports."

IEA and European Union guidelines require states to maintain reserves that would last for a minimum of 90 days in the event of an emergency.

Last year, Washington boosted its strategic reserves by 28 percent to about 700 million barrels in a bid to guard against long-term supply cuts and urged other consumer countries to do the same.

The IEA did not order such an increase but encouraged member states to take similar measures, Jacoby noted.

In June, as speculation mounted that U.S. President George W. Bush was planning military intervention to topple Saddam, European Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio proposed that EU states keep reserves sufficient for 120 days.

She also suggested that the 15 EU member states manage their reserves together, devising a Europe-wide consumption strategy reflecting the demand in each country.

IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle told the French-language publication Petrole et Gaz Arabes that OPEC had made several constructive comments recently about its willingness to compensate for a supply decrease.

Priddle singled out Saudi Arabia as a potentially useful partner.

Riyadh, whose supply capabilities stood at 7.6 million bpd in July, has an unused production capacity of 2.9 million bpd. OPEC as a whole, without Iraq, has an untapped potential to produce 5.54 million bpd.

Baghdad is allowed to export about 2.1 million bpd under the "oil-for-food" program supervised by the United Nations.

Oil prices edged lower on Friday, with benchmark Brent north sea crude for September selling for just over $25.

"While you've got the prospect of a U.S. attack on Iraq, people aren't going to want to sell," said Prudential Bache oil broker Tony Machacek.