BANGKOK (AFP) -- Myanmar's self-proclaimed government-in-exile is meeting in Jakarta this week to spearhead a democracy transition plan for the military-ruled country, but analysts are gloomy about its prospects.

The exiled government is joining six pro-democracy alliances working in and outside Myanmar to propose a “sustainable exit strategy” for the nation's junta, but one that acknowledges a place for a functioning military.
In a draft seen by AFP, the movement's plan is hailed as a “historic opportunity” by Sein Win, prime minister of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), which uses the country's former name.
The first cousin of detained Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, Sein Win said the proposal demonstrates that the people of Myanmar are “again speaking with one voice” and are “willing to compromise” to achieve a stable democracy.
“The last time all major ethnic and pro-democracy organizations have forged a common position was in 1947 when all forces agreed to seek independence from the British,” said the exiled politician, who has lived in America since 1993.
But despite this show of unity, analysts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the proposal and Myanmar's fragmented exiled politics in general.
“The cardinal failure is its inability to connect with the people inside (Myanmar). You don't live there anymore, you don't suffer. It's so abstract,” said Zarni, a research fellow on Myanmar at the London School of Economics who goes by one name.
The exiled government was formed in 1990 by Sein Win and other members of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, after the junta refused to recognize their party's landslide victory in elections earlier that year.
Since then Myanmar's military rulers -- in power since 1962 -- have detained Suu Kyi for a total of nearly 14 years while Sein Win has battled for democracy from the U.S. along with coalition ministers based in India and Thailand.
“The junta doesn't take exiles seriously, just Aung San Suu Kyi because she has backing from Downing Street, the White House ... She has the international backing,” said Zarni.
Democracy icon Suu Kyi was on Tuesday set to hear the verdict in a trial that has provoked international outrage and is thought by critics to be a ploy to keep her locked up for elections scheduled for 2010.
She faces up to five years in jail if convicted of breaching her house arrest rules after an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside home in May.
Zarni described her as “the only person that matters” to the junta, which is “why they are so determined to lock her up.”
Meanwhile he said exiled dissidents “should be focusing on getting resources and ideas into the country and into communities inside.”
“We can't force the Burmese junta to reconcile, to come to dialogue with the opposition. We've been trying this for 20 years -- it's not going to work,” he added.
David Mathieson of Human Rights Watch agreed that the exiled government and its allies struggled to be taken seriously by either the junta or the international community.
“No one believes exiles out of the country for two decades will return and assume power easily. That's a really extreme dream, but a lot of them in exile do have a role to play,” he added.
“The one thing they really can do is to inform the international community on the state of the political system inside Burma. It's far more powerful and effective to say: this is the real state of play.”
But the fact that the organizations meeting in Jakarta are “all trying to formulate a common strategy” is a positive step, according to Aung Zaw, editor of the Thailand-based Irrawaddy magazine that covers Burma.
The groups were previously deeply divided over strategy and vision, therefore the new movement was “interesting in terms of trying to coordinate together to overcome differences and personality issues,” he said.
The alliance, known as the Movement for Democracy and Rights for Ethnic Minorities, meets in Jakarta on August 12-13.