TEHRAN - The escalation of conflicts in the West Asia has disrupted LNG supplies, leaving Europe facing a shortage of gas reserves and a surge in prices on the verge of winter.

According to a report by Mehr News Agency, the intensification of tensions and military conflicts in the West Asia, particularly the U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran, has disrupted the production and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), posing a serious challenge to Europe's energy supply process for the upcoming winter.

According to estimates, Europe's gas reserve levels at the end of March will only be between 22% and 27%; a figure significantly lower than the five-year average of 41%, raising concerns about the continent's energy security.

To compensate for this shortfall and fill storage reservoirs during the summer season, Europe needs approximately 67 billion cubic meters of LNG, equivalent to about 700 liquefied gas cargoes; this figure is estimated to be about 180 cargoes more than last year.

Increased tensions in the region have also caused a jump in prices. Estimates show that the cost of supplying an additional 180 LNG cargoes has risen from about $6.7 billion to $10.1 billion, and the total cost of supplying 67 billion cubic meters of gas for the summer has also increased from $26 billion to approximately $40 billion.

Experts warn that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for one month, Europe could lose about 7.6 billion cubic meters of gas. In such a scenario, the price of gas could reach over 60 euros per megawatt-hour, and if the crisis prolongs and disrupts Qatari exports, it could even increase to the level of 100 euros per megawatt-hour.

This potential price surge threatens to reignite the cost-of-living crisis across the continent, impacting households and industries still recovering from previous energy shocks. 

Energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing and chemicals could face reduced operations or forced closures, leading to broader economic slowdown. 

Furthermore, Europe's strategic position is weakened, as it may need to compete more aggressively with Asian markets for limited LNG cargoes, potentially driving global prices even higher. 

The crisis underscores the continent's fragile energy security and its vulnerability to geopolitical events far beyond its borders. 

MA