TEHRAN- The world is holding its breath. With the escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil passes, has effectively been closed. While the immediate crisis is measured in halted tankers and rising energy prices, the United Nations warns that the real detonation will be a "food security time bomb" felt not just at gas pumps, but in supermarket aisles worldwide.

According to reports from the UN and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the closure has already triggered a surge in energy and fertilizer prices, impacting the cost of everything from wheat to corn. However, the worst is yet to come. As FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero recently stated, "The clock is ticking." Ships carrying critical agricultural inputs must start moving through the strait immediately to ward off a dangerous spike in food price inflation later this year.

The mechanics of this crisis are simple but devastating. Between 20 and 45 percent of key agrifood inputs, primarily fertilizers and fuel for irrigation and transport, transit the Strait of Hormuz. 

Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains gradually, this blockade is an abrupt amputation. Fertilizer and energy markets are notoriously inelastic, meaning prices can skyrocket far beyond what the reduction in volume suggests.

For farmers in developing nations, the timing is catastrophic. Crop calendars do not wait for diplomacy. As the FAO notes, farmers are currently making critical decisions about which crops to plant. Facing scarce and prohibitively expensive fertilizer, many will reduce yields or switch to less nutrient-dependent crops. Others may abandon food crops entirely to grow biofuels, seeking to capitalize on high oil prices, thereby shrinking global food supplies further.

The ripple effects will be felt within months. Lower yields in 2026 will lead to higher commodity prices and retail food inflation for the next several years. We risk a repeat of the post-pandemic crisis, where trade restrictions and panic buying worsened global conditions, pushing millions into hunger. "We are in an input crisis," warns FAO Director David Laborde. "We don't want to make it a catastrophe."

Unlike a natural disaster or an El Niño weather pattern, this blockade is man-made. As Torero noted, it "is something governments can resolve and have to resolve." The conditions are ripe for a "perfect storm." If the standoff continues, the international community must consider anticipatory actions, including emergency financing through the IMF to help at-risk nations purchase essential fertilizers without triggering distorting subsidy wars.

The silence from the Strait of Hormuz is deafening. But if the passage remains closed, that silence will soon be broken by the sound of empty shelves and rising interest rates. The world must act now to defuse this bomb, before the next harvest is lost.