TEHRAN- More than 100 days into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the economic fallout is crippling economies worldwide, but few are suffering as badly as the United States.

Global energy and fertilizer prices have exploded after the conflict throttled production across the West Asia and choked the Strait of Hormuz. Yet rather than projecting strength, Washington finds its own farm belt, a key Trump constituency, in open distress.

Long before the war began in late February, US agriculture was already broken. Trump’s trade tariffs, harsh immigration policies, and deep cuts to USDA aid had left farmers reeling. Now, diesel prices are at their highest since 2022, and fertilizer costs remain punishing. Cornell economist Christopher Barrett calls it “truly tough times,” noting that farmers face skyrocketing input prices on top of labor shortages and vanishing support.

The numbers tell a story of collapse. A Purdue University survey shows two-thirds of farmers expect the war to hit their net income negatively, only 13% see any benefit. More strikingly, the share of Americans believing the country is on the “right track” has plunged from 74% in July 2025 to just 52% in May 2026. Those seeing a “wrong track” nearly doubled to 48%. As Foreign Policy notes, farmers are “gradually losing confidence” in Trump’s policies.

Trump’s response has been weak: vague promises of “good things” in 90 days and talk of more aid. But past bailouts – $28 billion during his first term, another $12 billion last December, failed to restore lost soybean export markets. Economist Wesley Davis calls the growing farmer discontent “striking” for a traditionally Republican base. Meanwhile, the administration admits the crisis is “artificial” but offers no real solution.

The US is not alone, Brazil, Pakistan, and India are also suffering, but for a superpower that once dominated global agriculture, the sight of its own heartland begging for relief while the war drags on is a profound downgrade. With midterms approaching, Trump’s political foundation is cracking under the weight of his own war.