Saeed Sobhani

The alarm sounds for the Trump

June 7, 2019 - 23:19
American political equations are not transparent!

The US political equations are not transparent at all! Recent polls published in the US do not spell the victory or failure of any Democrat and Republican candidate in the upcoming presidential elections. However, some important polls have led to Donald Trump's disappointment.

An overview of some surveys and analyzes in the United States shows that Donald Trump is not in a good position in the country. Still, Trump's supporters are also hoping to re-engage in the political and executive equations of the United States.Here are some recent polls in the United States on the upcoming presidential elections:

President Trump's favorability flounders in key 2020 battleground states, new polls show

As Matthew Rozsa wrote,Trump was elected in 2016 by winning the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote. new survey finds that President Donald Trump — who was elected in 2016 by winning the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote — is in a critical situation when it comes to polls in key battleground states that could swing the election in 2020.Trump's net approval rating is negative and by double digits in the crucial states of Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to a new Morning Consult poll. Specifically, the president has a 42 percent approval rating and a 54 percent disapproval rating in Iowa, for a net approval rating of minus 12 percent; he posts the same figures in Michigan.

Trump also has a 39 percent approval rating and a 58 percent disapproval rating in New Hampshire, for a net approval rating of minus 19 percent; and he has a 42 percent approval rating and a 55 percent disapproval rating in Wisconsin, for a net approval rating of minus 13 percent.

These are not the only crucial states where Trump's approval rating is below water. In Arizona, he has a 45 percent approval rating and a 51 percent disapproval rating, for a net approval rating of minus 6 percent; in North Carolina he has a 46 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating, for a net approval rating of minus 4 percent; he has a 46 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating in Ohio, for a net approval rating of minus 4 percent; and he has a 45 percent approval rating and a 52 percent disapproval rating in Pennsylvania, for a net approval rating of minus 7 percent.

Another Morning Consult poll, which was released earlier this week, took a look at the Democrats who could replace Trump in the White House if they prevail in the 2020 election.

Former Vice President Joe Biden had a substantial lead with 38 percent of registered voters nationwide, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont with 19 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 10 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 7 percent and Sen. Kamala Harris of California with 7 percent.

A Fox News poll from mid-May suggested that any one of these candidates could present a threat to Trump in a general election. In a face-off with Biden, Trump trails by 11 points (49 percent to 38 percent); and running against Sanders, Trump loses by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent). However, Trump falls within the margin for error in face-offs against Warren (she leads by 43 percent to 41 percent), Harris (both candidates are tied at 41 percent) and Buttigieg (Trump leads by 41 percent to 40 percent).

One state which has received considerable attention is Texas, where Trump's approval rating is floundering, even though he won the red state in the 2016 presidential election by nine percentage points. As Philip Bump of the Washington Post wrote:

Then there’s this new poll of Texans by Quinnipiac University. It has Trump struggling against a number of the Democrats running for the party’s 2020 nomination. He’s up only four points on Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) — and that’s the race in which he’s doing the best. Despite his relative success last year, O’Rourke loses to Trump by three points. Against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Trump’s only up one.Against former vice president Joe Biden? Trump is losing by four points.

CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll). The new numbers on Trump are a reversal from December, when a narrow majority of 51% said they thought Trump would lose his bid for re-election.

The shift over that time comes mostly among those who disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency. In December, 81% in that group said they thought the President would lose, and now, that's fallen to 67%. At the same time, the share who approve of the President and think he will win has held mostly steady (88% now vs. 85% in December).

The dislike those disapprovers hold for Trump is palpable in the poll. Asked to explain in their own words why they disapprove of Trump, Trump's behavior is a central reason. The most frequently cited responses are lying (13%), racism (11%), incompetence (11%) and not acting presidential (7%). Immigration, named by 7%, is the only specific issue that merits mention by 5% or more.

Those who approve of the way Trump is handling his job as President instead focus on his accomplishments and on issues. About a quarter (26%) cite the economy as the main reason they back him, 12% say it's because he has kept his promises, 9% say that he's getting things done or accomplishing more than other presidents, 8% mention improved unemployment ratings and 5% point to his policies on the border.

The economy remains the bright spot of Trump's presidency in public opinion. Overall, 7 in 10 say the economy is in good shape, about the same as in March, and 52% say they approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down 4 points since April. This poll marks a new high point in the Trump presidency for the share who feel the economy is in "very good" shape, 28% say so, and though that's not significantly larger than the 26% who felt that way in March, it is the best mark since 2000.

Trump's second-best approval rating in the poll comes on an economy-connected measure: helping the middle class. On that score, 44% approve of the President, 49% disapprove.

While still negative, that's an improvement compared with the last time CNN surveyed on this question in August of the first year of his presidency, when 39% approved.

Foreign trade earns the President fewer accolades, with 41% saying they approve while 47% disapprove. The poll was in the field when the President threatened new tariffs on imports from Mexico in response to illegal border crossings from that country. While those figures are not significantly different from the President's approval ratings on this topic in December, his approval rating on foreign trade has grown 9 points over that time among a core constituency: Whites who do not have college degrees.

On immigration, Americans also give the President a 41% approval rating, with a higher disapproval rating (54%) than he earns for his trade policies.Turning to foreign policy, the President's reviews are also largely negative. On his handling of North Korea, Americans' opinions have shifted from positive (48% approve to 40% disapprove) to negative (41% approve and 45% disapprove) over the last year. Disapproval outweighs approval for his handling of the situation with Iran, 43% to 32%. And more disapprove (48%) than approve (42%) of his handling of the role of commander-in-chief.

Still, Americans' perceptions of the threat posed by Iran and North Korea has declined over the last year. In a May 2018 poll, 47% said they considered North Korea a "very serious threat to the United States," now, just 34% feel the same way, the lowest number in CNN polls since 2015. The same 2018 poll found 40% viewed Iran as a very serious threat. That has fallen to 28% in the new poll, the smallest share to say so in CNN polling back to 2000.

In both cases, the declines come chiefly among Republicans. Last May, 50% of Republicans considered North Korea a very serious threat, now just 30% say the same. There have been smaller declines over the same time among independents (down 13 points) and Democrats (down 6 points). Likewise, the share calling Iran a very serious threat has fallen 23 points among Republicans, 3 points among independents and 13 among Democrats.

The share of Republicans who consider Russia a very serious threat has also dipped in the last year, from 28% in 2018 to 20% now. Among independents, it's dipped 5 points, and nearly half of Democrats consider Russia a deeply serious threat (48%), about the same as the 46% who said so last year.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 28 through 31 among a random national sample of 1,006 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It is larger for subgroups.

Trump is really unpopular in the most important 2020 battleground states

Dylan Scott wrote in Vox that As he seeks a second term in the 2020 election, President Trump should be able to lean on his advantage in the Electoral College — in 2016, as you might remember, he lost the national popular vote but won enough states (and the right states) to secure 270 electors and take the presidency.But new polling of his state-by-state approval ratings suggests the president is unpopular in some of the most important battleground states for 2020, an ill omen if the trends hold until Election Day 2020.

Trump has been unpopular since his first day in office. The question now is whether he’s so unpopular that it overrides his advantage as an incumbent and a pretty strong US economy. The new state polls from Morning Consult don’t bode well for him.Here are the raw numbers for Trump in the states that are expected to be competitive in the 2020 election:

States approval disapproval
New Hampshire 39 percent approval 58 percent disapproval
Wisconsin 42 percent approval 55 percent disapproval
Michigan 42 percent approval  54 percent disapproval
Iowa 42 percent approva 54 percent disapproval
Arizona 45 percent approval 51 percent disapproval
Pennsylvania 45 percent approval 52 percent disapproval
Ohio 46 percent approval 50 percent disapproval
North Carolina 46 percent approval 50 percent disapproval
Florida 48 percent approval 48 percent disapproval
Indiana 49 percent approval 46 percent disapproval

It’s a grim picture. Wisconsin and Michigan were critical Midwestern pieces of Trump’s Electoral College puzzle and he is now deeply unpopular in both states. Pennsylvania was maybe his most surprising win in 2016, and now he is seven points underwater. Perhaps Trump can take solace in his even job approval rating in Florida, but that is the only swing state where the president looks as strong as he did on Election Day 2016. Everywhere else, his support has deteriorated.

Maybe the most striking finding is in Iowa, where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points. Iowans disapprove of his job performance by a 12-point margin now, in a farming state that’s been hit hard by Trump’s trade war. That would suggest the president’s cult of personality will not totally inoculate him from the unpopular parts of his policy agenda.

We still have a year and a half to go before the 2020 election. These approval numbers aren’t the same as a head-to-head match-up with a specific Democratic candidate (though those have not been very encouraging for Trump either). But they do indicate the unusual weakness of the president heading into his reelection campaign.

Trump’s presidential approval rating has been stubbornly low

Head-to-head polling between Trump and any prospective Democratic nominee seems nearly useless at this point. Aside from Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, many Americans haven’t yet formed their opinions on the various Democrats seeking their party’s nomination.But presidential approval ratings have always been strongly linked to voting behavior, and everybody knows Trump.

Trump has been consistently unpopular throughout his first two years. At his best, so far, he was seven points more unpopular than popular. A recent uptick has swiftly eroded. And as Vox’s Ezra Klein wrote last summer, this has been in defiance of a relatively solid economy:

“Trump’s poll numbers are probably 20 points below where a president would typically be with consumer sentiment as high as it is now,” says John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University who has done work benchmarking presidential approval to economic indicators.

So here, then, is what we can say: Judged on the economy, which is the traditional driver of presidential approval, Donald Trump’s poll numbers should be much, much higher than they are now. Far from finding a winning strategy, he seems to have found a losing one despite holding a winning hand.Trump’s approval rating is the metric to watch as we endure all the unpredictable twists and turns that will precede the 2020 election. The new numbers from Morning Consult show it isn’t just the Democratic states that are down on Trump; the states he would need to win reelection aren’t very happy with the president, either.

Polls show some early 2020 warning signs for Trump in key states

Aaron Blake wrote in Washington Post that The 2020 presidential election is still one year and five months away. Large swaths of Americans don’t even know many of the candidates who are bidding to be the Democratic nominee. And we still don’t know whether we’ll go through a politically arduous impeachment process.

All of that said, there are some real warning signs for President Trump in the first handful of polls of the 2020 race.

My colleague Philip Bump highlighted perhaps the shock poll of the early 2020 campaign on Wednesday. The Quinnipiac survey showed Trump trailing former vice president Joe Biden in Texas by four points — and holding statistically insignificant leads over the rest of the Democratic field there. Were Texas to actually be competitive, after Trump carried it by nine points in 2016, it would be a major leg up for the Democrats’ efforts to win back the White House.

And that wasn’t the only bad state poll for Trump that was released Wednesday. In Michigan, a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by the Glengariff Group showed Trump trailing both Biden and Bernie Sanders by 12 points in the state he narrowly won in 2016. Three other lesser-known Democrats also led Trump by between three and six points.

Other state polling we’ve seen at this early juncture haven’t been quite so ominous for Trump. A recent Florida Atlantic University poll showed the Florida race basically within margin of error in a state Trump carried by just more than a point — about what you’d expect. Another poll in Arizona showed Biden ahead by four, which as with Texas would be a major upset in a red state. But against other Democrats, Trump was about where he was in 2016, when he won by four points.

Yet the national picture is also somewhat grim for Trump. Of the three high-quality pollsters to test multiple general election matchups so far this year, both Biden and Sanders lead in all three outside the margin of error, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) holds statistically insignificant leads in all three, and both Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg are right there with Trump, even though they suffer from poor name ID.

Trump’s political stock is about where it was in 2016, when he defeated a Democratic nominee who was about as historically unpopular as he was. Perhaps it should be a surprise that he would struggle against Democrats who haven’t been through the wringer yet. But it’s also noteworthy the position he seems to start in when it comes to some key states again unknown opposition, and it doesn’t appear to be a position of strength.

How are recent polls interpretable?

The fact is that we can not say decisively about the victory or failure of the United States President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, but recent polls show that Tramp's popularity in key and sensitive states has declined. . An issue that could mark the failure of the President of the United States in these important states.

Recently, the controversial results of polls conducted on Trump's popularity have been published in the United States. Some of these polls were conducted all over the United States, and since they were based on "public votes", their results can't be that much trusted. However, in some polls that were based on the US Electoral College structure, we can make a more accurate estimation of Donald Trump's condition.The popularity of Trump has dropped in recent polls in the United States. Donald Trump's calculations have been incorrect in many cases! This has exacerbated Republican concerns over next year's presidential elections. An overview of the results of recent polls in the United States shows that Trump has a difficult path to re-election.

The fact is that the President of the United States is having a hard time! Undoubtedly, Trump will now take steps to win White's votes and gray votes for the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, opponents of the U.S. president have begun their campaign to defeat Trump.The popularity of Trump in crucial states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin can make this change in the results of the presidential elections of 2020 at his own expense.

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