SEOUL Anyone expecting that a new administration in the United States could order another global trade round, as if turning on a tap, would be vastly mistaken, according to a top World Trade Organization (WTO) official.
"We all agree that until a U.S. administration takes hold, there's little chance of progress since the engine is still a Euro-American entente," AFP quoted WTO Deputy Director General Paul-Henri Ravier as saying.
He was speaking to AFP on the sidelines of an annual meeting called by Groupe Evian with some 70 government officials, top businessmen, academics and journalists taking part.
"But to think that by April when a new U.S. president finds his feet, Washington could give the order and everyone would fall in line, would be a grave mistake," he said.
"Such an attitude on the part of U.S. officials would only seem provocative and be rejected by most countries," Ravier said.
"The system has really changed," he said. "Nothing gets done anymore if the top three or four actors cannot have a minimum agreement and are unable to rope in another 15 or so emerging countries and major developing nations." To set the stage for a new round, after the collapse late last year of the Seattle ministerial meeting, it is imperative to attain a certain "critical mass" in preparatory talks, Ravier said.
That is the challenge facing ongoing negotiations in Geneva on three subjects agriculture and services where there is still much ground to cover but also the delicate issue of implementation, he said.
He was referring to the conditions for giving effect to the commitments that developing countries made in Marrakesh in 1994 at the conclusion of the Uruguay round.
"Until a satisfactory solution is found to the question of implementation, it would be foolhardy to think the Third World countries would turn up for a new round," Ravier said.
"Conversely, the issue has to be handled with caution because the major industrialized countries want to avoid reopening the Marrakesh negotiations, and having to compromise twice now and in the future new round," he said.
But even if the current negotiations go "generally smoothly," much else would remain, Ravier said, noting that the WTO Secretariat and many countries believed it would be "illusory to seek to satisfy everybody over just those three subjects.
"To achieve a critical mass, the discussions have to be enlarged," he said, listing tariffs, market access, competition and investments as other areas that need attention, not to speak of nettlesome issues such as environment and social standards.
As for a schedule for negotiations, Ravier said the political leaderships face three challenges: "We must have a ministerial meeting once every two years as per statues, we must have a new round and we can't afford to fail a second time." "Let's be very careful, another failure would be a disaster," he added, arguing that the "big losers at Seattle were the developing countries whereas the rich countries could adjust well to the situation." Ravier stressed that "unless major actors show great flexibility on major issues, there'll be no new round." And, "if the conditions aren't ripe by the time of the next ministerial meet, let's not get into a Seattle-like situation all or nothing," he said.
"Let's prepare for a ministerial meet that would be an event as 'ordinary' as that of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development," Ravier said.