TEHRAN – More than two years after Israel launched its war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, the outcome is undeniable: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to “destroy Hamas” has failed. 

The October 10 ceasefire was supposed to mark the end of Hamas’s grip on Gaza. Instead, it has revealed the opposite — Hamas, though weakened, remains entrenched, rebuilding day by day, and reasserting its authority in ways that expose the futility of Israel’s campaign and the hollowness of American promises.

From the start of the conflict, Israeli officials themselves admitted that Netanyahu’s rhetoric was misleading. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military chief spokesman, warned in June 2024: “This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear — it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public.”

Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir cautioned that a full occupation of Gaza would trap the army in a costly quagmire. Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant argued that without a political solution, military operations alone could not secure lasting stability. Opposition leader Yair Lapid added that Netanyahu’s refusal to compromise had isolated Israel internationally. These voices foreshadowed the reality now visible on the ground.

As The New York Times reported on Monday, Hamas has quickly filled the void left by Israel’s partial withdrawal. “Hamas was hit hard, but it wasn’t defeated,” said Shalom Ben Hanan, a former senior official in the Shin Bet. “It’s still standing.” The NYT noted that Hamas has reestablished its presence in Gaza, with police forces visible again, officials regulating imports, and fighters replacing commanders lost in battle. Brig. Gen. Erez Winner explained that Hamas swiftly rebuilt its leadership, while intelligence estimates suggest 20,000 fighters remain. More than half of its tunnel network is intact, giving the group places to hide and store weapons.

Hamas has also demonstrated its ability to strike back.  Earlier this month, Yasser Abu Shabab, the leader of a militia backed by Israel, was killed in Rafah. This was a blow to Israel’s attempt to cultivate alternative forces in Gaza.

Netanyahu, however, continues to insist otherwise. Last month, he told his cabinet, “This territory will be demilitarized, and Hamas will be disarmed. Either this will happen the easy way, or it will happen the hard way.” Yet Israeli lawmakers acknowledge that with each passing day of the ceasefire, Hamas deepens its control. “It happened very quickly,” Moshe TurPaz, a centrist Israeli lawmaker, said of Hamas’s resurgence. “The moment to bring in the new government was the moment the ceasefire started. Hamas was at its weakest.” That moment has passed, and Israel’s failure is now entrenched.

The Trump administration’s plan for Gaza only compounds the problem. It envisions demilitarization, reconstruction, and a new government backed by an international stabilization force. But this vision is detached from reality. Hamas officials reject outright disarmament, insisting weapons are central to their identity and necessary for self-defense. Senior official Husam Badran told the NYT the group was willing to discuss its arsenal only in the context of “serious” talks about full Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of a Palestinian state. “Without that, talking about these matters would be nonsensical,” he said.

By refusing to consider reconstruction in areas under Hamas control, Washington risks deepening Gaza’s humanitarian crisis while strengthening Hamas’s narrative of resistance. For Palestinians, surrendering weapons would mean abandoning the right to resist occupation. Trump’s plan, therefore, is not a roadmap to peace but a recipe for renewed conflict.

The war devastated Gaza, killing tens of thousands and injuring many more. Yet Hamas survives, governing half the territory, taxing imports, policing the streets, and preparing for the future. As Ben Hanan cautioned in the NYT: “Hamas is besieged. But if it continues controlling parts of Gaza and wants to rebuild its capacities, it will find a way to rebuild them. The next battle might be in 10 or 20 years, but it could be much worse than Oct. 7.”

On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out a large-scale surprise attack on southern Israel. More than 1,100 people were killed in the operation, and some 250 were taken captive. The attack shocked Israel and triggered the two-year war that so far has claimed the lives of more than 70,000 Palestinians.

Israel’s war has failed to achieve its stated goal. The United States has failed to offer a viable alternative. And Hamas, weakened but unbroken, remains the central force in Gaza. The ceasefire has not ended the struggle; it has only revealed the truth: Hamas still stands, and Israel’s promise to destroy it was always an illusion.