Trump’s Iran war: A hubristic gamble bogged down in escalation and miscalculation
TEHRAN - President Donald Trump had been laboring under the delusion that a war on Iran would yield a decisive victory in a short period. Trump assumed that through political and military leadership decapitation, Iran would descend into chaos, allowing him to advance his plans. He had proposed the idea of a Venezuela-style scenario for Iran, referencing the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation on Venezuelan soil.
However, more than two weeks after launching a war on Iran, President Trump’s dreams appear to have been wishful thinking. The martyrdom of Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and top military commanders has not only failed to weaken Iran but has further encouraged the country to deliver a crushing response to the aggressors.
In the third week of the war, U.S. media have intensified criticism of the Trump administration for its failed war strategy. A recent report by Axios implied that Iran holds the upper hand in the third week of the war. The report touched upon Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating, “Trump is working to help break the Persian Gulf oil jam. But in doing so, he risks getting caught in an escalation trap, where a stronger force is incentivized to keep attacking to demonstrate dominance amid diminishing returns.”
Axios reporter Barak Ravid also said he had heard from three different people in the Trump administration and allied countries who believe the instability in the Middle East and U.S. involvement could continue until September, even if the war shifts to a low-intensity conflict. His revelations highlight Iran’s declaration that its armed forces will not rest a moment in defending the country’s sovereignty and territory in the face of a long battle with aggressors. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has declared that a ceasefire must lead to the recognition of Iran’s rights, payment of reparations, and international guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not attack Iran again. Iranian military and political officials have also rejected Trump’s claim that Iran is seeking a ceasefire to end the war.
The Axios report admitted that the U.S. will be gripped by the repercussions of the conflict even if Trump announces the war is over. “Trump could pull out tomorrow. But the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and push oil prices so high that America would have to re-engage,” the Axios report stated.
The report revealed that Trump’s war on Iran was a ‘mistake.’ “Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south. But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called ‘buyer’s remorse’ — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.”
It also said Trump’s hubris, following last year’s war with Iran and Maduro’s abduction, pushed him toward a new conflict with the Islamic Republic.
In June last year, Israel launched a war on Iran only two days before Tehran and Washington were scheduled to hold a new round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. later joined the war and bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran. After the bombing, Trump claimed that he had completely and totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. Since last year’s June war, Iran has not enriched uranium. However, Trump said one of the main aims of the ongoing war was to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons, a claim Iran has rejected as baseless, stressing that its nuclear program is peaceful.
In the Axios report, Ravid also pointed to Trump’s message on Truth Social on Friday night, in which he claimed he had totally defeated Iran, stating the message was aimed at claiming victory.
For now, it has become more evident that President Trump seeks to project a manufactured sense of victory in an attempt to find a political exit from the conflict, which has dealt severe damage to American installations in the Persian Gulf and has so far claimed the lives of over a dozen American service members.
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