OPEC Output Increase Needed in June, Says CGES

April 24, 2001 - 0:0
LONDON The center for Global Energy Studies called Monday for OPEC to raise output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) at its June meeting in order to pre-empt an ultra-tight market toward the end of the year.

"Such action would help to stabilize Brent prices at around 24.5 dollars per barrel (dpb) in the second half of the year, yielding an annual average price in 2001 of 25 dpb," it forecast in its latest monthly oil report, IRNA said.

The London-based center, chaired by former Saudi oil minister Zaki Yamani, argued that if current assessment of global oil demand growth in 2001 of around 1.3 million bpd are correct, "OPEC needs to increase, rather than cut, output."

It projected that a June increase would keep prices stable at around 24.5 dpb for the rest of the year, but would rise to 27.6 dpb if OPEC delayed raising its output until October.

With regard to fears that global oil demand may only grow by 900,000 bpd in 2001, CGES accepted that prices would substantially weaken if OPEC took no action to cut.

But the center, which already believes 25 dpb is too high to avoid a prolonged economic slowdown, argued that rates would not collapse in the manner OPEC feared, saying they would stabilize at around the organization's previous target price of 21 dpb.