TEHRAN - When Iranian journalists sat down with diplomats ahead of the first round of the nuclear negotiations in early February, they all had one question in mind: Do we even know that the U.S. will not attack Iran in the middle of talks again?

The diplomats we spoke with were candid: there was no guarantee that the Trump administration genuinely wanted a deal. However, they stated that they had communicated to the U.S. what would happen if it bombed the negotiating table again. Foreign ministry officials, they said, had relayed messages to the Americans, warning that in the event of another war against Iran, the conflict would be far bigger than the previous one imposed by the U.S. and Israel against the nation back in June.

Iran’s Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, also stated that “the next war would be a regional one,” only days before the negotiations began.

Trump’s previous war against Iran was a failure. It did not achieve the stated goal of “obliterating” Iranian nuclear facilities and did not fulfill the long-standing American dream of toppling the Islamic Republic either.

It took Trump some time to accept responsibility for last year’s war. He did not directly intervene until the final days, and his administration even claimed in the beginning that Israel was carrying out attacks on Iranian infrastructure on its own. Only months later did Trump admit in remarks to reporters that he had been “in charge of” the 12-day war “since the beginning.” The Trump administration, analysts say, did not want to be blamed for the potential death of American soldiers or the decimation of the U.S. bases, which is why they denied involvement.

However, this time, the dynamic shifted dramatically. Shortly after coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks on Tehran and other Iranian cities on Saturday morning, both regimes announced joint responsibility for the strikes. The Israeli military said the attacks were the result of months of “close and joint planning.” Trump then published a statement where he boasted that he is “the only American president” to have done what he had – attack Iran twice in 8 months, both in the midst of nuclear negotiations mediated by Washington’s Arab allies in the region.

But why didn’t Trump, this time, seem concerned about the world knowing he had initiated a war with Iran, when he had previously worked to conceal it? 

His confidence likely stemmed from a belief that – mirroring his own deception regarding diplomacy – Iran was bluffing about the threatened regional war. He likely believed he could attack Iran, incite violence and riots as he did in January, and topple the Islamic Republic before it could act on its warnings.

But Iran is not a gambler. Iranians historically like to play chess. They publicly state their intentions and follow through. Iranian citizens are not going to support a foreign aggressor, and the Iranian military was prepared to begin the warned-of regional war within hours. 

In the coming days, Iran will likely continue striking U.S. bases, targeting Israeli cities, and potentially attacking previously undisclosed American assets. Trump and his advisors who pushed him towards war bear full responsibility. They underestimated weeks of clear warnings from Tehran and must now face the consequences.