TEHRAN — In the third week of the joint U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran, the strategic miscalculations of the administration of President Donald Trump are becoming increasingly apparent.

The conflict began on February 28 with a large-scale military campaign aimed at crippling Iran’s leadership and military capabilities. In preparation for the operation, Washington deployed its largest military presence in the Middle East since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Two aircraft carrier strike groups, additional fighter aircraft, and advanced air-defense systems were sent to the region to protect Israel and key U.S. allies.

However, three weeks into the conflict, many of Washington’s strategic objectives remain elusive. The war has expanded into a regional confrontation that is reshaping security and energy dynamics across the Middle East.

Before the start of the operation, Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly warned the White House about the risks of a prolonged conflict and the vulnerability of U.S. forces stationed across the Persian Gulf. According to U.S. media reports, he cautioned that American bases, infrastructure and personnel could become targets if Iran retaliated on a large scale.

Despite these warnings, the conflict quickly escalated.

Iran launched thousands of drones and missiles at Israeli targets and at American-linked military infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. Several Persian Gulf states hosting U.S. forces have faced repeated strikes on military bases, American-linked airports and energy facilities.

Iran’s growing drone capabilities have also drawn attention from military analysts. Kate Bondar of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Financial Times that U.S. air-defense systems were not originally designed to counter large waves of low-cost drones and missiles produced domestically by Iran.

The conflict has also affected global energy markets. Shipping through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes — has been severely disrupted, with maritime traffic dropping dramatically following attacks on vessels and tanker routes.

The disruption has pushed global oil prices higher and forced emergency responses from energy markets. In an attempt to stabilize prices, Washington temporarily eased restrictions on Russian oil exports, allowing additional supplies to enter global markets.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll continues to rise. More than 1,400 people have been killed in Iran since the beginning of the war.
Among the dead were 168 people — most of them students — killed when a U.S. missile strike hit a girls’ school in southern Iranian city of Minab, an incident that drew international condemnation.

The war has also exposed vulnerabilities in American military infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Iranian strikes have targeted U.S. bases and logistical facilities across the region. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Iranian missile attacks damaged several U.S. aerial refueling aircraft stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Satellite imagery has also suggested damage to early-warning radar systems connected to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile-defense network.

Key strategic consequences of the war

Several developments have led analysts to conclude that the conflict has produced serious strategic setbacks for Washington and its allies:

Blowing up Minab school: The U.S. strike that destroyed the girls’ school in southern Iran intensified international denunciation of the campaign.

Loss of operational security across the Persian Gulf: Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit U.S. bases across Persian Gulf states, demonstrating the vulnerability of American deployments in the region.

Damage to radar and air-defense systems: Early-warning radars and advanced air-defense networks — including systems linked to THAAD batteries — have reportedly been damaged by Iranian strikes.

Heavy damage in Israel: Iranian missile barrages caused significant destruction in Tel Aviv, overwhelming parts of Israel’s air-defense network.

Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran has effectively taken control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, drastically reducing tanker traffic and preserving what officials described as the nation’s sovereign rights over one of the world’s most important energy routes.

Global oil prices surge: The disruption of Persian Gulf shipping routes has pushed global energy prices sharply higher.

For now, the war appears far from the quick victory some in Washington had predicted. Instead, it has revealed the risks of escalation in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions — where military confrontation can rapidly reshape global energy markets, regional security and geopolitical alliances.