TEHRAN- A detailed analysis published by the Middle East Institute (MEI) concludes that the United States abandoned deterrence as the core of its Persian Gulf strategy, leading to a failure in the war on Iran and leaving the Persian Gulf arab states worse off than before the conflict began.

For over 30 years, US military bases in the Persian Gulf monarchies served as an effective deterrent, shielding these nations from conventional state attacks. Even during the June 2025 "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran, Tehran largely refrained from retaliating against countries in the region, launching only a symbolic missile strike at a US base in Qatar.

However, the current war proved different. According to the analysis, this was not a defensive war but an offensive one aimed at regime change in Tehran or stripping Iran of its military power. Once Washington and its Israeli ally decided to forcibly upend the Iranian status quo, the Islamic Republic retaliated without restraint.

The article notes that when the US used military threats to preserve the Persian Gulf status quo, deterrence worked. But when Washington became a regional aggressor and then, unlike in Iraq in 2003, failed to achieve its regime change objectives, Iran had every reason to escalate and bring the fight directly to the Persian Gulf monarchies.

The results reveal a clear US weakness. Iran, though bloodied, remains unbowed and now asserts a right to control the Strait of Hormuz—something it never attempted before. Meanwhile, the US faces a critical challenge: whether it can restore the pre-war status quo in this vital waterway.

The analysis further questions whether countries in the region, after seeing their security compromised by reckless American-Israeli warfare, can still trust Washington to return to its former role as a reliable provider of deterrence rather than a foolhardy disruptor of peace. The answer, the report concludes, will determine the future of US bases and the broader American-Persian Gulf alliance.