TEHRAN- Economist Jeffrey Sachs says the ongoing conflict involving Iran is not an accidental development but rather the result of a long-term geopolitical strategy, cautioning that further escalation could trigger severe global economic consequences.

In a podcast interview with Tucker Carlson, Sachs described the war as “a war of choice,” arguing that it is driven by ambitions of regional dominance rather than immediate security concerns. According to him, the conflict reflects decades of efforts to reshape the Middle East.

Sachs emphasized that, contrary to expectations, the war has not weakened Iran. Instead, he said, the country has grown more coordinated at the regional level, gained military experience, and strengthened ties with non-Western global powers.

Addressing the roots of hostility toward Iran, Sachs pointed to historical factors, particularly US involvement in Iran’s past, including the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, which he described as a key moment shaping long-term distrust and geopolitical tensions.

He also challenged prevailing narratives ??? Iran’s nuclear program, arguing that claims about Tehran imminently developing nuclear weapons have been exaggerated or politically instrumentalized to justify pressure and confrontation.

The economist linked regional conflicts to what he described as a broader strategic vision, often referred to as the “Greater Israel” concept, suggesting that multiple wars in the Middle East should be viewed as interconnected rather than isolated events.

Sachs further argued that U.S. foreign policy has been heavily influenced by lobbying networks, including energy interests and pro-Israel groups, believing that such forces have played a decisive role in shaping Washington’s approach to the region.

Despite acknowledging internal challenges such as drought and environmental pressures in Iran, Sachs said external pressure has failed to weaken the country, instead reinforcing its regional posture and alliances.

Reflecting on his exchanges with Israeli officials, Sachs argued that military solutions are unlikely to bring lasting security and may instead deepen instability. He also discussed the historical background of Zionism and the establishment of Israel, referencing figures such as David Ben-Gurion, and highlighted their long-term impact on regional dynamics.

Looking ahead, Sachs warned that Israel could face a major strategic dilemma if U.S. support declines, adding that the current trajectory of regional policy is “untenable” and cannot be sustained indefinitely without serious consequences.

He cautioned that a broader escalation of the war could have far-reaching economic effects, including damage to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, a sharp rise in oil prices, accelerating global inflation, and the possibility of a worldwide recession. According to Sachs, such a scenario could trigger a systemic shock across the global economy.

While rejecting the idea that conflict is inevitable, Sachs said current policies are increasing the risk of escalation. He concluded by questioning whether existing political and economic systems could withstand the pressures of a prolonged, expanding conflict.