TEHRAN- An international oil and energy market analyst, stating that the UAE chose the worst time to leave OPEC, believes: "The world's energy market is now more than ever dependent on supply and demand conditions, and although the UAE's exit from OPEC does not threaten OPEC, it fuels competition among oil producers."

Fereydoun Barkeshli, in an interview with IRNA examining various dimensions of the UAE's decision to withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said: "Mr. Al Mazrouei, the UAE's oil minister, announced on April 28 that his country would leave OPEC and the OPEC+ group of allied oil-producing and non-OPEC countries as of May 1, 2026; he cited the reason for this decision as being within the framework of UAE's national interests, following detailed expert reviews, and based on an assessment of the global oil market in the coming years."

Referring to the history of OPEC's formation and noting that countries leaving and sometimes returning to OPEC has a long history with various reasons, he said: "Ecuador left OPEC in 1992 and Gabon in 1995. Ecuador returned to OPEC in 2007 but left again in 2020; Gabon returned in 2016. Indonesia suspended its OPEC membership in 2009, returned in 2016, and left again the same year. Qatar left OPEC in 2019. Angola left OPEC in 2024."

Barkeshli continued: "The entry and exit of eligible countries from OPEC is not an unprecedented phenomenon. Of course, the admission of any new member requires the approval of all five founding members — Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Kuwait. But any member may leave at its discretion."

Disputes over production quotas and production-sharing contracts: the main reason for leaving OPEC

The international oil and energy market analyst said: "Examining the reasons for countries' decisions to leave OPEC points to disputes over oil production quotas. Gabon left OPEC over a request for an additional quota of 5,000 barrels. Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria proposed allocating a small portion of their quotas to Gabon to dissuade it from leaving, but Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states opposed this."

Barkeshli noted: "Behind the scenes of the quota issue, and on a technical level, the main issue involves the entry of international companies and production-sharing or participation contracts. International oil companies' programs in host countries are based on maximum production."

He added: "A look at OPEC's history shows that disputes of countries that left OPEC were driven by pressure from international oil companies, which did not allow host countries to restrict production in sectors under their ownership. Indonesia was an exception, as it transformed from a net exporter to a net importer during its OPEC membership and left reluctantly and regretfully. Nigeria also faced issues with international companies' participation in production at times, but the foreign companies' share was small."

* Hawks and Eagles in OPEC

Barkeshli stated: "For decades, OPEC countries have been divided into two groups: Hawks and Eagles. Countries with high reserves, like Saudi Arabia, favored higher production and lower oil prices. Countries with lower reserves favored restricting production and raising prices."

This energy market analyst continued: "In the past, Saudi Arabia led the countries favoring higher production and lower prices. Iran led the countries favoring lower production and higher prices. The members of the group led by Iran were mostly non-Arab OPEC members like Venezuela or Nigeria. Of course, Libya and Algeria were also led by Iran."

He added: "In recent years, the global oil market conditions and OPEC's role and structure have undergone changes. Saudi Arabia, which still holds the highest production level in OPEC, now favors production restrictions and relatively lower prices. Mohammed bin Salman's development plans have become much more expensive than initial estimates. In the country's 2025 budget, the desired oil price was stated as $92 per barrel."

* Footprint of Shale Oil in Disputes Among OPEC Members

The international oil and energy market analyst also said: "Of course, a major concern for all OPEC and non-OPEC members is the growth of shale oil in the United States. Shale oil will grow faster than before at prices above $70–75 per barrel. Since shale oil entered the market in early 2010, OPEC members have favored, from a medium- and long-term perspective, a price level that prevents unconventional crude oils and new and renewable energies from growing too rapidly. The issue of renewable energy and shale oil is always on the agenda of OPEC and OPEC+ meetings."

Barkeshli stated: "The UAE, with limited oil reserves, seeks to maximize production. The UAE's economy has diversified significantly, reducing its dependence on oil revenues. Additionally, international oil companies are demanding higher production."

He continued: "The UAE's economic approach in the Persian Gulf region and among GCC members is unique. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and others, where some traditional considerations, especially traditional political attitudes, still prevail, in the UAE, affairs are run like an economic enterprise. This policy approach has made the UAE somewhat different from other sheikhdoms in the region. The other GCC members more or less follow Saudi policy frameworks."

* Role of Non-Oil Disputes with Saudi Arabia in Leaving OPEC

This international oil and energy market analyst, stating that among the major factors behind the UAE's exit from OPEC, non-oil disputes with Saudi Arabia must also be seriously considered, explained: "Disputes between the two countries intensified since the Yemen and Sudan wars. The Saudi government supports the established government, while the UAE supports opposition groups. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia is simultaneously at war with both the Houthis and the UAE, while the UAE wants to establish a desired government in Yemen that can control the Gulf of Aden coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait."

He added: "The UAE strongly avoids any interference of religious beliefs in politics and has had disputes with Riyadh in this regard. Among all Persian Gulf sheikhdoms, the UAE has established the closest relationship with the Israeli regime. Abu Dhabi has gone so far in its ambitious regional policies that on several occasions, it directly clashed with Saudi army forces, causing casualties."

Barkeshli continued: "The Emiratis realized that in the future, a country's power would not come from the wellhead, but from controlling the routes of oil tankers. Saudi Arabia is also aware of this, but due to its high production volume and large share of global oil demand, it expects that major consumers like China will quickly pave the way for normalizing Saudi oil flows."

He noted: "The two countries' regional disputes have been raised many times in the GCC with no result. These same disputes have pushed the UAE further toward Israel and the US. Saudi Arabia, while maintaining its relations with the US and the West, has moved closer to China and Russia."

In his view, "Within the framework of these regional policies, Saudi Arabia signed a security agreement with Pakistan, and the UAE drew closer to India, and both countries have established special relations with Israel. The UAE has for years been designing a pro-secession axis against Iran's resistance axis."

* Redefining Energy Order of  World

The international oil and energy market analyst said: "It is true that the UAE's rapid movement toward integration into the global market and international economy contradicts regional constraints and divisions to some extent, but this does not justify the UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+. Abu Dhabi joined OPEC in 1967. In 1971, along with other sheikhdoms, the UAE was formed as a single country and joined the OPEC family. The UAE knows very well how to go about increasing its quota within OPEC's framework, and we have never had any OPEC member with significant unused capacity for a long period."

He acknowledged: "At the same time, it is true that Abdulaziz bin Salman's management style in OPEC annoyed Al Mazrouei. However, arguing for liberation from OPEC's constraints and then calling OPEC a cartel when only a few days remained before the UAE's official exit from OPEC was discourteous and outside conventional oil diplomacy in OPEC. We have never before heard an OPEC oil minister, two days before officially leaving OPEC, call the organization a cartel."

Barkeshli believes the UAE chose the worst time to leave OPEC. "On one hand, the Al Qasimi family in Sharjah, which has always had issues with Abu Dhabi, is raising new problems; on the other hand, by expelling Pakistani and Indian Shiites — who were among the best foreign migrant workers in the UAE — the country has unintentionally entered ethno-religious tensions that will likely continue in some form in the future."

This international oil and energy market analyst explained: "Abu Dhabi could have had OPEC's and the GCC's support. The UAE has also left OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries). This organization, headquartered in Kuwait, was for years an umbrella and coordinating group for Arab oil-producing countries within OPEC. The UAE's population is nearly 11 million, with about 1.4 million natives. In this country, discussions revolve around trade and commerce, differing from Saudi Arabia, which has 36 million native population."

He recalled: "The UAE's exit differs from what has happened in OPEC before. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2025, the UAE held 11.5% of OPEC's collective production."

* UAE Was Not a Disciplined OPEC Member

Barkeshli continued: "In 2025, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) controlled 44.5% of global oil production. OPEC+'s influence on the global oil market stems from its market share. Obviously, the UAE's exit from OPEC does not threaten OPEC, but it clearly slightly reduces its market influence. Of course, the UAE was not considered a disciplined member in 2024–2025 either, but now market conditions depend on supply and demand."

He emphasized: "Instability in the Persian Gulf region and rising global oil prices could affect about three to four million barrels of global demand. In other words, the global oil market could face a reverse demand growth. Under conditions of high oil and petroleum product costs, electric vehicle supply and demand have grown rapidly. In the European Union, orders for electric cars that were previously unsold now have delivery waiting times of several months."

According to this international oil and energy market analyst, "This trend is not directly related to the UAE's exit from OPEC, but in a situation where global oil demand is declining, increased UAE production may lead to competition among producers. We cannot say with certainty how long the critical conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will last. But at the end of the crisis, a relatively sharp drop in global oil prices, followed by a producer war for market share, is very likely. We might talk about prices below $55–60. Of course, shale oil will be damaged, and gradually some supply will disappear."

* Future of Global Oil Market: Possibility of Venezuela Leaving OPEC

Barkeshli declared: "In fact, a market share war could threaten OPEC's survival more than the UAE's exit. The price and market share war of 1986 led to a movement in Iran to leave OPEC, and Saudi Arabia followed this with interest and enthusiasm in the OPEC hall, because Iran's exit from OPEC could end a major problem for Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. But a greater threat to OPEC is the possibility of Venezuela leaving the organization."

He added: "This country produced up to 3.7 million barrels per day in 1997–1998. After years of sanctions and domestic protests, the oil industry was affected, so that in the last quarter of 2025, average production fell below half a million barrels. In March of this year, Venezuela's oil production reached 1.3 million barrels per day. Delcy Rodríguez's government, which took power after Maduro, has prioritized improving the oil industry and maximizing foreign investment in Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA."

This international oil and energy market analyst continued: "Major companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, and European companies like Eni, Repsol, and Shell have begun extensive operations in Venezuela. Venezuela faces many structural problems in its oil industry, and a return to production levels above three million barrels per day will take time. In any case, as one of OPEC's five founding members, Venezuela plays an important role in preserving OPEC's integrity. In the geo-economic marketing of oil in the world and the Persian Gulf region, eyes will be on Iran and Saudi Arabia. In today's world, which Trump pays attention to, understanding oil is understanding the world."

Barkeshli noted: "After Saddam's fall and the relative stabilization of Iraq's oil industry, the then Saudi oil minister told Iran's oil minister that in the next 20 years, the Iranian-Saudi front would be at the helm of OPEC and the global oil market."

MA