TEHRAN- The idea of transferring Russian gas through Iran to the Persian Gulf is one of the important geopolitical energy scenarios that could change the gas trade map in Eurasia and the West Asia.

According to Mehr News Agency, energy corridors in the world are not only physical routes for transferring resources but also tools for shaping geopolitical and economic balances. In recent decades, competition over oil and gas transit routes has become a key element of countries' foreign policies. In such an environment, the plan to create a north-south gas corridor, which aims to transfer Russian gas through Iran to the Persian Gulf, has been proposed as one of the important scenarios in Eurasia's energy sector. This idea is based on Russia's vast gas production capacity, Iran's geographical position, and the Persian Gulf states' access to global markets. If such a corridor materializes, it could transform gas supply dynamics in the region and lead to the creation of a new energy axis among Russia, Iran, and southern markets.

Iran lies at the geographical center of this scenario. Iran's transit position between the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf has made it a focus of many energy transit plans. On the other hand, Russia, as one of the world's largest gas producers, seeks to diversify its export routes. The combination of these two factors has led to the idea of transferring Russian gas through Iran to the south being repeatedly discussed at expert and political levels. If realized, this corridor could not only create a new export route for Russia but also turn Iran into one of the main nodes of regional gas trade.

* First scenario: Gas swap in Iran's network

One of the most practical scenarios for transferring Russian gas through Iran is using the gas swap mechanism. In this model, Russian gas is delivered at Iran's northern borders, and Iran exports an equivalent amount from its gas network in the south to the intended destination. In this case, the imported gas is not necessarily physically transferred to the Persian Gulf but is consumed within Iran's domestic network, with its equivalent delivered elsewhere.

This method has been previously tested in regional energy interactions. In recent years, Iran has executed gas swaps from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. Such a pattern shows that Iran's gas network is technically capable of swap operations. In the swap model, Russia can deliver its gas in northern Iran, while Iran provides gas to customers at locations like Assaluyeh or Bandar Abbas.

The main advantage of this method is less need for heavy investment in new infrastructure. Iran's extensive gas pipeline network stretches from north to south, and a significant portion of energy transfer can be done using this existing infrastructure. However, some points of the network may require pressure boosting and increased transfer capacity, but this cost will be much lower compared to building an entirely new pipeline.

Economically, the swap is a flexible model. Iran can receive a transit fee or take a portion of the gas as transit rights. This also benefits Russia because it provides indirect access to southern markets. In such a case, buyer countries in the Persian Gulf or even beyond can receive gas delivered in southern Iran without necessarily entering into a direct contract with Russia's transmission network.

Despite the advantages, this scenario faces challenges. The most important issue is Iran's seasonal gas imbalance. Gas consumption in Iran rises sharply in winter, and in some years, the domestic network faces supply restrictions. For a sustainable swap, careful planning for domestic consumption management, gas storage, and seasonal contract adjustments is necessary. 

* Second scenario: Physical gas transit from northern Iran to Persian Gulf

Another scenario is the direct or physical transfer of Russian gas through Iran's pipelines to the Gulf coast. In this model, after entering Iran, gas is transferred through the national grid or new pipelines to the south and delivered there to export terminals or regional networks.

Iran has one of the most extensive gas pipeline networks in the region. The national gas pipelines, crossing northern and central regions, form a major part of the country's energy transmission infrastructure. However, transferring high volumes of Russian gas to the south would require increasing this network's capacity. This can be done by building pressure boosting stations, adding parallel pipelines, and optimizing gas flow management.

If such development occurs, Iran could become a significant transit route for gas. In this case, Russian gas could be transferred to energy facilities on the Gulf coast. These facilities may include petrochemical complexes or even gas-to-LNG projects. Since the Gulf countries have maritime energy export infrastructure, such a route could lead to a new link in global gas trade.

The advantage of this scenario is the creation of a real and sustainable energy corridor. Unlike the swap model, which is mostly a contractual solution, this involves a physical gas transfer route that can move significant volumes over the long term. This is also important for Russia as it diversifies export routes and reduces dependence on limited routes.

However, this scenario requires significant investment. Upgrading Iran's gas transmission network, building new stations, and possibly constructing complementary pipelines entail considerable costs. Additionally, issues related to financing, technology transfer, and the region's geopolitical conditions could affect the speed of such a project.

* Third scenario: Creating a gas hub in southern Iran and connecting to global markets

In the third scenario, the north-south corridor is not just a simple transit route but part of a larger plan to create a gas hub in southern Iran. In this model, Russian gas, upon entering Iran, is combined with regional gas resources, including Iran's own production or even gas from Central Asian countries, and managed as a commercial hub in southern Iran.

Creating a gas hub means forming an energy pricing and trading center where various suppliers can offer their gas to regional or global buyers. If southern Iran becomes such a hub, Russian gas could also be present in this market and sold through diverse contracts.

The geographical location of Iran's southern coast is suitable for forming such a hub. This area is close to major energy shipping routes and has relatively short access to Asian markets. Moreover, the presence of large gas fields in Iran concentrates a significant supply volume in the same region.

In such a structure, the north-south corridor becomes a key infrastructure transferring gas from northern sources to the southern hub. This hub could be complemented by facilities such as gas liquefaction plants, regional pipeline networks, or long-term export contracts. As a result, Iran could play a more active role in global gas trade and become a link between Eurasian producers and consumer markets.

Of course, realizing this scenario requires long-term planning, infrastructure investment, and the creation of transparent legal and commercial frameworks. Global energy markets are highly competitive, and a gas hub's success depends on factors like regulatory stability, open access to infrastructure, and investor confidence.

Overall, the idea of transferring Russian gas through Iran to the Persian Gulf, although facing challenges, has significant geographic and economic logic. Iran is positioned to connect northern Eurasia's gas resources to international waters and global markets. Depending on political, economic, and investment conditions, one of the scenarios—swap, physical transit, or gas hub creation—may materialize. Each of these scenarios will have different implications for the region's energy trade structure, but a common point is Iran's central role in forming a new energy corridor between north and south.

EF/MA