The closure of the Manas U.S. airbase in Kyrgyzstan would be a severe blow to the conduct of the war in Afghanistan.

It is the only U.S. base in Central Asia, and not only is it used for combat sorties -- it is a key link in the supply chain which is expected to be used increasingly heavily as a build-up of U.S. reinforcements into Afghanistan develops.
The threat to its future came in a statement from Kyrgyzstan's President Bakiyev, who said in Moscow that his government had decided to close the base. This has been followed by the submission to the Kyrgyzstan parliament of a bill to shut down Manas within 180 days of the U.S. being given formal notification to quit.
The U.S. says it has not been given any notification and of course, there is a get out clause there, as the Kyrgyz government might simply delay such an action indefinitely. It nearly asked the Americans to leave in 2005.
The base, attached to Bishkek's airport, was set up in 2001 for the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Russia is putting the screws on the president. The U.S. will now have to try to get him to change his mind and offer more money.
President Bakiyev was speaking after agreeing an aid package with Russia that would provide more than $2bn of help to his impoverished country. Much of it would be in the form of an investment in a dam needed for electricity supply but there is also about $450m in grants and soft loans desperately needed to support the country's economy.
Given that its annual budget is just over $1bn, money in this case is obviously vital. And money might have talked as well.
Some observers believe that President Bakiyev has either agreed to Russian demands to link its aid to the closure of the U.S. base or is playing one side off against another.
The future of the Manas base is a test of will for the United States Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has been trying to reclaim the influence it once had in the former Central Asian Soviet republics, so Russian pressure on Kyrgyzstan is not unexpected.
The U.S. already pays an annual rent of $60m for Manas and other payments bring U.S. aid up to over $150m. It has been in discussions with the Bishkek government about future arrangements.
“The threat to close Mamas is credible but it is not a guarantee,” said Paul Quinn-Judge of the analytical organization the International Crisis Group.
Speaking from his office in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, he said: “The issue is purely financial. The country is falling to pieces. There is an energy crisis and people don't have enough electricity or jobs and it will get worse. The economy only just functions at best. The government will expect the U.S. to make a counter offer.
“Russia has tied its aid to the closure of the base but the ultimate decision will be made on the basis of money. Russia is putting the screws on the president. The U.S. will now have to try to get him to change his mind and offer more money.”
The future of the base is an important test for President Obama. He plans to significantly increase the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan from its current level of 32,000. An interruption of the supply route would make that task much more difficult.
He also has to face the realities of Russian power in the region, as Russia appears to be gearing up to test American will and influence there.
(Source: BBC)