SYDNEY(WSJ) -- Qantas Airways Ltd. Chief Executive Alan Joyce said he doesn’t expect Australia’s national carrier to merge with another airline for at least a decade.

Mr. Joyce also predicted that at least one competitor will drop out of the cramped Pacific route between Australia and the U.S, and confirmed that Qantas has suspended plans to list its frequent flyer business indefinitely.
“It’s definitely off the radar screen for us,” he said, adding that the value of the business isn’t currently reflected in the Qantas share price.
Merger talks between Qantas and British Airways PLC. fell through last year and Qantas has also held merger discussions with Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Malaysian Airline System Bhd.
Since then, a sharp economic downturn has devastated the global aviation industry, forcing many struggling businesses into mergers or bankruptcy.
While industry conditions have stabilized since April, Mr. Joyce acknowledged that the short-term outlook for the industry “is dire,” with another 20 airlines expected to collapse this year.
Consolidation is back on the agenda, he said, with merger activity accelerating in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. But Mr. Joyce said Qantas learned from its experience with British Airways that mergers between national airlines are “extremely hard” to achieve on commercial terms acceptable to both parties.
Tough regulatory hurdles and the potential for management to become distracted also present difficulties, he said.
“It’s going to take a lot longer than we originally thought,” he told a conference, referring to the likelihood of a merger.
“It’s still the way the industry will go, but I’m not sure it’s going to be in the next few years; it’s going to be 10 years-plus,” he said.