By Saeed Sobhani

The confidence of the president of the United States has been lost!

May 31, 2019

Although the president of the United States has stated that he does not credit the polls conducted in his country, his advisers are afraid of the current process. They believe that Tramp has lost some of his popularity with American voters. This fall in popularity, especially in key states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, could lead to a defeat of Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

Donald Trump suffers a decline in his popularity today! The president of the United States is well aware that if Congress repeats the results of the 2018 congressional elections in the decisive states, especially the three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he can no longer be at the forefront of Washington's political and executive equations. During the congressional elections in 2018, the Democrats were able to win in these three states. However, during the 2016 presidential race, Tramp could beat Hillary Clinton in the three states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and win the election.

Now the game is different from 2016! An overview of some polls and reports published in the US media shows how much the president of the United States is as confused about his political future.

Election Forecast Models Trump The President's Bad Poll Numbers

As Bill Whalen wrote in Forbes, America doesn’t lack for superhero movies in the summer of 2019: an X-Men sequel will premiere a few days from now, followed in July by another Spiderman installment. But what of the Democrats’ search for a superhero of their own? May I suggest: Aquaman? Here’s why the submariner seems appropriate (other than the film’s preachy environmentalism): remove former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg from this Quinnipiac Poll of 2020 Democratic candidates and what one discovers is a field that’s “underwater” (higher negatives than positives:

Biden’s numbers: 49% favorable; 39% negative.

His rivals for the nomination:

Bernie Sanders: 41%-48%;

Elizabeth Warren: 32%-41%;

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Kamala Harris: 27%-30%;

Beto O’Rourke: 20%-32%;

Cory Booker: 23%-31%;

Buttigieg: 23%-19%

Bill de Blasio: 8%-45%.

Trump also is in the poll, which was released last week. His positive/negative came in at 38%-57%, compared to 41%-55 in the first week of May. What this suggests: come a year from now, when the Democrats either have settled on their presidential nominee or are in the closing days of doing so, we could be looking at two parties whose standard bearers’ approval ratings are underwater. And it begs this question with regard to Trump: what polling data is relevant to the man’s political fortunes (this seems like a fair question to ask given that the recent federal election in Australia again has us asking why the pollsters got the outcome wrong?

Let’s take another look at that Quinnipiac Poll. On the economic front, 52% of respondents said they’re better off today than they were in 2016 (only 21% said they’re worse off). 71% of American voters rated the economy either excellent (22%) or “good” (49%). It’s been 18 years since the same poll produced such bullish numbers. But add Trump’s name to the mix and the numbers work against the White House. Only 48% of voters approve of his handling of the economy; 40% approve of his handling of U.S. policy toward China (Trump’s Iran-related approval is 37%); only 37% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy.

Those numbers could change should the President find common ground with the Chinese on trade practices and/or tensions in the Persian Gulf are eased. It’s these sets of numbers that should concern the Trump re-elect brain trust: 54% of Americans say they “definitely” won’t vote for him next year. That includes 54% of independent voters (along with 94% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans).

But also unsettling are these results from a Monmouth Poll that came out last week: only 37% of voters believe Trump deserves a second term, while 60% want someone new in the White House; only 29% of poll respondents believe the nation’s on the right track; 63% think we’re on the wrong track. So with those numbers in mind, some election prognosticators have concluded that Trump . . . will be reelected. That includes a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates, plus other forecasts that measured economic variables as well as the Electoral College.

About that model: it’s the handiwork of Ray Fair, a Yale economist who predicted that Trump would win in 2016 (though he was off on the popular vote).For 2020, Fair’s model sees Trump receiving up to 56.1% of the popular votes. But in 2016, he likewise had Trump at 56%, only to see the candidate lose the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. What all of this suggests:

Trump needs more policy victories so as to improve those “right track/wrong track” numbers;

Trump needs to figure out the disconnect with independent voters – is its policy or personality-based?

Trump isn’t the only candidate with weak numbers – it would seem we have a skeptical electorate;

Another Trump election could make for more polling confusion;

Forget about wagering on Trump vs. Biden, or Trump vs. the Democratic filed. The real head-to-head struggle in 2020: Trump vs. Trump.

Also, JONAH GOLDBERG wrote in Los Angeles Times:

 “Without the ILLEGAL Witch Hunt, my poll numbers, especially because of our historically ‘great’ economy, would be at 65%,” President Trump tweeted last week. In all likelihood, the president believes what he wrote. It’s a strongly held sentiment among many of Trump’s ardent supporters that if he hadn’t been stabbed in the back by the Deep State, the investigation of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III and a complicit media, people would have realized by now that Trump is, as the actor Jon Voight recently put it, “the greatest president since Abraham Lincoln.” Or at least they would give him a fairer shake than he’s gotten.

Is it true that the president’s poll numbers have suffered largely because of what he calls a “witch hunt”?The shortest and most accurate answer for this and all counterfactuals is, “We can never know.” Still, there’s ample reason to conclude the answer is, probably not.
There are two mutually reinforcing reasons for this conclusion, one structural the other specific to Trump. The structural explanation is that the electorate has been growing more polarized for decades, and the presidency had become a symbol in the culture war long before Trump.

There have been only a handful of times in recent decades when any president has enjoyed a super-majority of public approval. During wartime, for example, the rally-around-the-president effect often swamps partisanship. George H.W. Bush hit 89% after the first Iraq war, and after 9/11, his son reached 90%.

Other events can also goose approval ratings. Bill Clinton’s highest approval numbers were reported on the day he was impeached (a fact House Speaker Nancy Pelosi probably is thinking about as the House considers impeaching Trump). It’s widely believed the bump in Clinton’s polling was less a referendum on the president than on the effort to remove him. Barack Obama’s best performance – 69% -- came four days after his inauguration when many Americans were hopeful that his presidency could deliver on his campaign promise to put the culture wars behind us.

In all of these cases, however, the entropic effect of polarization reasserted itself as Americans divided back into Red and Blue teams. Obviously, events mattered. If, say, the second Iraq war had gone swimmingly things might have been different, but there’s little reason to believe the larger trend wouldn’t have manifested itself again in time.

And then there’s the specific case. Trump won in 2016 by picking the lock of the electoral college while losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes. According to Gallup, he took office with an approval rating of 45%. His highest approval rating in Gallup’s polling was achieved last month: 46%.

The notion that the public would have come around to Trump but for the Mueller probe presupposes that the investigation is what made him unpopular when all of the evidence suggests that the investigation was merely something that people who already disliked the president put their hopes in. When Mueller’s finding that there was “no collusion” was released, Trump’s approval rating went down, not up. Also, the fact that Trump enjoys majority approval for his handling of the economy even as his overall disapproval ratings stay high, demonstrates that voters don’t look only to economic indicators when judging presidents.

There is, however, one way in which the Mueller probe may have hurt him: His reaction to it. When impeachment loomed for Clinton, however much he was privately obsessed with it, his public position was to ignore it and at least seem like he was focused on the people’s business. Trump went a different way.

Normal presidents begin their terms by reaching across the aisle and attempting to at least appear as if they represent the whole country. They try to build on the coalition that elected them. Trump has never made any sustained effort in this regard. From his inaugural address onward Trump has catered to his biggest fans and most ardent supporters.

This is a defining feature of Trump’s character. The only people who matter are the ones who love him. And since his election, he’s routinely mocked the idea that he should be “presidential” because his fans would find it “boring.”

It’s easy to imagine a world where the Mueller probe never happened. It’s harder to imagine one where Trump isn’t Trump, which is why 65% approval was never in the cards.

Conclusion:
The president of the United States has a difficult and complicated situation. He knows well that the result of his two-year presence at the head of Washington's political and executive equations is nothing but a crisis. Even his popularity in the realm of the economy appears to be as clear as the results of his destructive economic policies (against China and ... ..) will be reduced in the near future. Trump's unbalanced and intervening foreign policy has also led to American dissatisfaction and anger. In such a situation, Donald Trump will have to make fundamental changes in US foreign policy to survive in the White House. An issue that is hard to enforce to a large extent for the controversial president of the United States.

Surveys in the United States show that, contrary to Trump's imagination, he is not eager to win the presidential election of 2020. Incidentally, state surveys show that this time the likelihood of a tramp failure is higher.


 

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