By Hanif Ghaffari 

Trump is coming to an end!

September 3, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump is in the worst possible situation! New polls in the United States suggest that Trump will be defeated by all four Democratic candidates in next year's presidential election. The popularity of Trump has dropped in recent polls in the United States. Donald Trump's calculations have been incorrect in many cases! This has exacerbated Republican concerns over next year's presidential elections. An overview of the results of recent polls in the United States shows that Trump has a difficult path to re-election.

However, Trump appears to have lost the power to manage the crises at the White House. Trump is now worried about the upcoming presidential election. He will take any action in order to get public votes. Most of these actions have a populist aspect. The president of the United States is trying to implement the same formula for the presidential election of 2016 in 2020.

The main point is that the President of the United States of America, both at the state and public levels, has lost popularity with American citizens.

Undoubtedly, Trump will now take steps to win White's votes and gray votes for the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, opponents of the U.S. president have begun their campaign to defeat Trump.The popularity of Trump in crucial states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin can make this change in the results of the presidential elections of 2020 at his own expense.

Trump thought his popularity in the economy could lead to a definite Republican victory in next year's presidential election, but recent polls show he was wrong!

Former US Vice President Joe Biden has also made efforts to confront Trump.

How can Biden really overcome this situation? Undoubtedly, the former vice-president of the United States will focus on social services, including health insurance, in the 2010 presidential election race. In this case, Biden can bring the middle and poor Americans. It should not be forgotten that Trump in the field of foreign policy is not well placed in the polls, and only about 40 percent of American citizens confirm their policies in the face of the international system. Biden, meanwhile, specializes in foreign policy, and his vision is more than approved by American citizens. Meanwhile, Biden's only concern is the tramp control in the economy.

Here's a look at some of the latest news and analysis on Trump and America's latest political situation:

Trump’s worst 2020 poll yet

As Washington Post reported, Trump hasn’t seen many good polls these days, but he might have just seen his worst of the 2020 election cycle.

A new Quinnipiac University poll has plenty of bad news for Trump — from his 2020 matchups with Democrats, to his own personal image, to his biggest asset in the 2020 race: the economy.

The poll shows him trailing all five Democrats tested by between nine and 16 points. He trails Joe Biden 54 to 38, Bernie Sanders 53 to 39, Elizabeth Warren 52 to 40, Kamala D. Harris 51 to 40 and Pete Buttigieg 49 to 40. These represent his biggest deficits to date against all five candidates, according to RealClearPolitics’s compilation of polls.

The poll also shows his approval/disapproval declining to 38/56, with just 27 percent approving of him strongly and 50 percent disapproving strongly. That’s the worst those splits have been in Quinnipiac polling since February 2018.

He earns the approval of just 32 percent of independents and the disapproval of 60 percent. In every matchup with a Democrat, he trails among independents by at least 18 points. This is a demographic that he won in 2016 by four points.

The bad news extends, perhaps most significantly, to the economy. While six in 10 registered voters still regard the economy as “excellent” (18 percent) or “good” (43 percent), for the first time since June 2016 more Americans say the economy is getting “worse” (37 percent) than say it’s getting “better” (31 percent). As recently as one year ago, more than twice as many people thought the economy was getting better as though it was getting worse. The poll also shows, for the first time, slightly more Americans say Trump’s policies are “hurting” the economy (41 percent) than say they are “helping” (37 percent).

The economic findings may be the most ominous of the entire poll for Trump. While we have yet to see a significant downturn in the American economy, there are increasing signs that it’s a possibility, and analysts are tying those growing odds to Trump’s trade war with China. The economy is by far Trump’s best issue: His approval is 38 percent or less on every other issue tested, including immigration and trade, but 46 percent on the economy. If it does decline, he’ll lose his most compelling case for reelection on an issue that is generally the most important to voters.

This is but one poll, and we’ll have to see if other polls suggest a similar decline for Trump. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll also released Sunday showed Trump’s approval remaining at 44 percent, and Trump has yet to trend downward in RealClearPolitics’s polling average.

But a new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan on Wednesday also showed Trump trailing every Democrat in that crucial state, which Trump narrowly won in 2016, by between three and 10 points. And pretty much every high-quality national poll, including a Fox News poll earlier this month, has shown Trump trailing his top would-be 2020 opponents, including by large margins with the better-known ones.

There’s plenty of time, and polls aren’t predictive, but for now, it appears he’s starting from behind.

Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin

As CNN reported, The Quinnipiac poll was the second probability poll that meets CNN standards and was conducted in August which found Trump down by at least 5 points against all his most likely challengers. In both the Fox News poll out earlier this month and Quinnipiac's latest, he trailed his most likely challenger, Biden, by double-digits. In fact, in an average of all the August polls (those that meet CNN standards and not), Biden was up by a 49% to 39% margin.

We're still over a year away from the 2020 general election, so don't take these polls to the bank.

Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.

I went all the way back to World War II-era in the Roper Center archive to see how presidents were polling at this point against their eventual challengers. I selected the worst poll for the incumbent if there was more than one poll taken in order to give Trump the most generous comparison. In years in which no polls were taken in August the year before the election (i.e. when the last poll for 2020 was conducted), I chose the poll taken closest to this point.

What's clear is the vast majority of incumbents were ahead at this point in the campaign: nine of the 11 were ahead. And for the average incumbent, they led their eventual challenger by 12 points at this point.

Again, Trump trails Biden by 10 points in the average August poll. Trump has not been ahead of Biden in a single national poll taken this entire cycle.

Only two of 11 incumbents in past years, Jimmy Carter in 1979 and Barack Obama in 2011, were behind at this point. They were down by 4 points and 1 point respectively to their eventual challengers (Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney). Carter went on to lose reelection.

Obama went on to win with a small reelection margin -- and there were many polls at this point that had him ahead. (Remember, I'm looking at the worst poll for past incumbents.)

Put another way, Trump's worst poll against any of the top five Democrats at this point is 5 points worse than the worst poll for any incumbent since World War II against his eventual challenger. It's 12 points worse against his most likely challenger, Biden.

As I've already mentioned, we don't know if these polls will hold. What is notable, though, is that Trump is not punching above his approval rating right now. Trump's approval rating has been consistently below his disapproval rating, just like he has been consistently been polling behind Biden. That lines up with what occurred in the 2018 midterms: Republican House candidates got the same share of the votes as Trump's approval rating, 45%.

Trump has time to turn his reelection ship in the right direction. But in the 10 months since the Republicans lost the House in 2018, he's in no better shape. You could even argue he's in a worse position.

Two polling methods, Two views of Trump’s 2020 re-election chances

As New York Times reported, There are two major theories about President Trump’s standing heading into his re-election campaign. Over the last few months, they have found backing from two very different kinds of polls.

One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances in 2020: Many presidents have gone on to win after having approval ratings like Mr. Trump’s today, and many presidents have won after a midterm drubbing. The state of the economy could be pivotal; if it stayed strong, he would have a real chance to win. His approval rating could rise, like that of prior presidents, once voters began to assess his presidency in comparison with the alternative. His relative advantage in the Electoral College could put him over the top.

Another theory holds that President Trump and this polarized era are unique. In this view, Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular, and opinions of his presidency are entrenched. The economy cannot save him from defeat. After all, his approval ratings are poor despite low unemployment; nothing short of fundamental changes in his conduct could improve them. In this view, the 2018 midterm election, when Democrats won the national House vote by almost nine percentage points, would be a harbinger of the general.

Of course, the truth could be somewhere in between (and probably is). But these two theories have different consequences for how to think about the campaign in 2020.

In the more traditional view, Mr. Trump would have a solid chance following the same playbook as George W. Bush and Barack Obama, at least if the economy stayed strong enough. He would attack his opponent and use wedge issues (like immigration) to both mobilize his base and lure back some voters who are dissatisfied with his performance. Democrats, meanwhile, would want someone who could keep voters focused on why they’re dissatisfied with the incumbent’s conduct, defuse wedge issues, and appeal to the sort of Obama-Trump voters who have soured on the president.

But if Mr. Trump and this era are unique, then 2020 might hinge on turnout: In a polarized environment with few persuadable voters left, little else would matter. Democrats might not need to worry about whom they nominate, as long as they can energize irregular voters. In the extreme, you could argue that the president has basically already lost re-election: Voters have made up their minds, and too many dislike him for him to win.

These theories are impossible to test before the election. But the main evidence for the polarization theory comes from the polls. They have always shown the president’s approval ratings well underwater, with around half of voters saying they strongly disapprove of his performance. If that ever stopped being true, it would essentially disprove the theory.

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Since the end of the government shutdown, the president's approval rating has been stable in online polls, but far more variable in telephone surveys. Estimate is calculated using polls taken both before and after the date.That’s why movement in the polls has been particularly interesting lately. Over the last few months, online polls and live-interview polls have split in a way that would either support or undermine each of these theories, depending on which set of polls you believe.

The online polls support the polarization story: They show that the president’s approval rating has been astonishingly steady throughout his presidency, including over the last month.

But the telephone polls have been more variable, particularly over the last few months. In June and July, live-interview polls seemed to show the president’s approval rating matching the highest level of his term. If that’s accurate, it undermines the polarization theory and suggests the president still has the ability to broaden his appeal.

The president’s peak came in early July, just after the first Democratic debate, which could mean that the Democrats helped his cause, perhaps as a result of voters assessing his performance through the lens of the alternative. Democrats might have been particularly helpful to Mr. Trump if they repelled some persuadable voters by focusing on busing, ending private health insurance, extending health insurance to undocumented immigrants, or decriminalizing unauthorized entry into the United States.

Since then, the president’s ratings have dropped by several points, and there is no shortage of potential explanations: his verbal attacks on four congresswomen; mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton; growing concern about the economy and the trade war. A decline in the president’s ratings wouldn’t be good for his chances, of course, but it nonetheless suggests that public opinion is at least somewhat responsive to events, the economy and his conduct. If his ratings can go down, they can also go up.

It’s hard to know which set of polls is right. Live-interview polls have long been considered the gold standard in survey research. But they’re increasingly rare, which makes it harder to be sure of where they stand at any given time. They also aren’t typically weighted by a measure of partisanship, like party registration, so they’re more susceptible to shift with changes in which groups are likeliest to respond to polls.

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