By Ramin Hossein Abadian

Erdogan’s dreams in northern Syria won’t be realized 

October 12, 2019

TEHRAN - Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s goals in northern Syria are beyond the issue of Kurds, but this dream will not be interpreted. 

Erdogan’s political mindset and desire are toward the establishment of neo-Ottomanism in the region. Fighting terrorism and the threats of PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and its elements on the Syrian-Iraqi borders, is just an excuse to enter northern Syria. 

Dreams such as expanding territory, changing demographic structure on the border with Syria, and increasing influence and power in the region, prompted Erdogan to declare war on Syrian Kurds.

It was expected that with the efforts of Syrian people, army, and Kurds, and the assistance of Bashar al- Assad’s regional allies, the Syrians would get rid of ISIL.

For many years, the U.S. has suffered repeated defeats on both cold and hot wars in the Middle East, and lost billions of dollars. According to the U.S. president, who is currently dealing with impeachment, the White House no longer wants to be involved in this war and should have not entered the Middle East in the first place. These words by Trump are to challenge Democrats and Obama. It must be said that the only true word of Trump during his presidency is that the U.S. should leave the region. 

Since the beginning of the Syrian war, U.S. intelligence agencies have brought ISIL to Syria through Turkey and Iraq and equipped it to hit the axis of resistance and also to create a safe zone for the Zionist regime. But the ISIL was defeated and 12000 of its forces were captured by Kurds. It is likely that most of them have important information about U.S. support and Israel’s role. The U.S. has allied with Turkey to eliminate the information. 

Trump is withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria, with the excuse of cutting security and defense costs, and put Erdogan, his only ally in the Syrian case, in charge to keep American public opinion satisfied. 

Now the question is that will U.S. goals in Syria be pursued by Turkey? These goals include, overthrowing Bashar al-Assad, establishing the administration of their own agent, undermining Hezbollah and Hamas movements, securing Israel, decreasing Russia and Iran’s influence in Syria, looting oil and other resources with the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and reaching a location near Iran.

To what extent Turkish pragmatic president can meet U.S. interests in Syria and lands near the Golan Heights?  It is obvious that he is not able to do that. The Turkish government cannot stand against the axis of resistance, even if it eliminates all Syrian Kurds and takes the control of northern Syria. In addition, the fragile Turkish economy and international community’s reaction will not allow Erdogan to do so. 

The Turkish president is pursuing some goals in northern Syria, including restoring lost credibility in Turkey, escaping political and social failures of last election, defeating the Idlib front, removing thousands of Syrian refugees in border camps, and diverting public opinion from terrible economic situation. 

Under current circumstances, Erdogan’s dreams of expanding territory to Homs and Aleppo, changing the demographic context in northern Syria, preventing social, political and cultural connection of the Kurdish people in southeastern Turkey with Syrian Kurds, settling Arabs and Turkmens at Syrian-Turkish borders, reaching to Iran and Russia’s level, and gaining more power in Syria, will not be realized. 

Political and military experts believe that the only way to save Syrian Kurds and preserve their legal rights is to agree with Syria and using its army and allies to remove Turkish threats. 

Countries with influence in Syria, including Iran, said that they will support Kurds’ agreement and alliance with Syria. 

   
 

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