TEHRAN- It is eight years since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed. However, the U.S. government withdrew from the multilateral agreement in 2018. 

Donald Trump ended U.S. participation in the nuclear deal and raised doubts about the 12-year-long efforts to resolve the Iran nuclear issue. As a result, the talks to revive the JCPOA have become a significant topic of discussions in Iran and the U.S. media.

On June 30, Fox News, a media outlet affiliated with the Republican Party, published a report discussing the Biden administration's preference for a temporary and informal agreement over the JCPOA with Iran. Despite the administration's public denial of negotiations, evidence suggests behind-the-scene discussions may occur. 

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), highlighted the importance of releasing American prisoners. He emphasized that the U.S. could release some $7 billion in frozen funds held in escrow under U.S. sanctions laws in South Korea as a bargaining chip for releasing the American citizens. 

This came after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statement that “there is currently no nuclear deal in the offing.” 

Peter Aitken's report published on the Fox News website on June 30 refers to the current situation as a "political cease-fire" and believes the Biden administration is attempting to prevent further deterioration.

U.S. is responsible for failing to revive JCPOA 

Peter Aitken's report highlights the current state of the JCPOA is influenced mainly by the United States' approach. The U.S. is accountable for the agreement's breach and inability to revive it. Although the Biden administration pledged to alter foreign policies established during the Trump era, no significant change has been made about Iran.

Sanctions and political pressure imposed by Trump are still in effect. Despite three years of negotiations, the U.S. has not shown a genuine desire to improve the situation.   

Even with the political changes in Iran, the Raisi administration has declared its willingness to return to the JCPOA. However, the United States did not approve proposals like a simultaneous return to the JCPOA in the past three years. As a response, Iran has speeded up its nuclear activities to counter U.S. violations. Iran's access to enriched uranium reserves beyond the JCPOA limits results from the U.S. reluctance to revive the JCPOA. There are several reasons for this reluctance, some of which are discussed below.  
 
JCPOA was never the ultimate goal of the U.S. 

It is crucial to comprehend the reasons behind the failure to reinstate the JCPOA and the role of the United States in this matter. The Obama administration's ultimate goal in signing the JCPOA was to address the United States' problem with Iran's nuclear program, which was part of the U.S. overall strategy towards Iran. The aim is to prevent Iran from becoming a regional superpower, as the U.S. views Iran's development as a threat. Therefore, the U.S. tries to counteract possible sources of power in Iran. Iran's nuclear, missile, and drone advancements would make it more influential in the region.

The JCPOA agreement was not seen as valuable by U.S. Democrats on its own. Instead, it served as a stepping stone toward resolving other issues between Tehran and Washington. Unfortunately, the JCPOA failed to make progress from the very beginning. Iran's top officials said no other JCPOA would be reached. For example, Iran insisted that promoting its military capability is non-negotiable. The project's failure was cemented when Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, causing it to lose its worth as a facilitator for future agreements between Iran and the U.S. 

From the outset, it was evident that the Biden administration had no plans to rejoin the JCPOA under the same terms approved in 2015. Instead, they hoped the Iranian government would agree to return to the JCPOA in exchange for initiating discussions on non-nuclear matters. The U.S. ultimate goal for a possible return to the JCPOA is to limit Iran's regional influence. During discussions held at the end of the Rouhani administration with the sitting U.S. administration, conditions were introduced for initiating non-nuclear talks. 

The U.S. is not interested in a revival of the JCPOA. A leaked audio recording featuring Robert Malley, the former U.S. special envoy for Iran in the Biden administration, also supports this idea. According to Malley, the U.S. intended to use the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal as a means of putting more pressure on Iran regarding other issues. As a result, since the Raisi administration did not agree to the U.S. suggestions for negotiations on other matters, the U.S. has completely abandoned the idea of returning to the JCPOA. 

U.S. no longer prioritizes West Asia 

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and growing tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan led the U.S. to lessen its focus on the Iran nuclear issue. While the U.S. is still working to undermine Iran's potential as an emerging power, it is now focusing on applying collateral pressure, such as maintaining sanctions. The concept of American decline refers to the diminishing power of the U.S., making it difficult to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously. 

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan per the Doha Agreement of February 2020 and reduced focus on Southwest Asia can be traced back to the American decline. The United States prefers to focus on other pressing issues as the Ukraine war and China-Taiwan conflict. Consequently, U.S. officials have frequently highlighted that the JCPOA is outside the U.S. top priorities.   

Role of Democratic-Republican competition in Biden administration approach 

The Biden administration is seeking to avoid tense political competition with the Republicans in anticipation of the 2024 presidential elections. Despite this, the U.S. no longer intends to rejoin the JCPOA and instead seeks to uphold sanctions to impede Iran's progress. However, it would not be advantageous for the Democrats if Iran's nuclear program gets more complicated.  

According to a report by Fox News, the U.S. has been granting special concessions to prevent Iran from reacting severely. These concessions include releasing part of the frozen funds. Iran is approaching the deadline for the end of missile sanctions under the JCPOA. Although it is developing its nuclear program, it hopes to exploit the political turmoil in the U.S. to release its financial resources.