By Chang Hua, Ambassador of China to Iran

China, biggest engine of global economic growth

February 4, 2024 - 10:26

TEHRAN- In 2023, in the midst of the global economic slowdown and the rising complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment, China's economy fought its way through difficulties. National economy rebounded and improved. High-quality development was pushed forward in a solid manner. The main expected goals were successfully achieved, with gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding 126 trillion Yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%.

Recently, a number of international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund(IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), have raised China's economic growth expectations and are bullish on the momentum of China's economic growth in 2024. It is widely believed that China is the biggest engine of global economic growth.

China's economic fundamentals are stable and improving. China insists on not engaging in strong stimulus, and not accumulating long-term risks in exchange for short-term growth. So the economy has great resilience and maintains a long-term positive trend. In terms of factor endowment, China's "demographic dividend" has been optimized to "talent dividend". China's total amount of talent resources, scientific and technological human resources, and the number of research and development personnel ranking the first in the world.

China has abundant capital factors. And the proportion of its annual capital formation has risen to 30% of the global capital formation. In terms of industrial bases, China is the only country with all the industrial categories as defined in the United Nation’s Classification of Industries. There are more than 200 mature industrial clusters forming, and the size of China’s manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world for 13 consecutive years.

According to the data by World Bank, China now accounts for 28.7% of the global manufacturing output (compared to 16.8% for the U.S.), and accounts for 30% of the global manufacturing added-value, which is about the sum of the Group of Seven(G7). In 2023, China's automobile exports exceeded those of Japan.For the first time, China became the world's top automobile exporter. In terms of the potential of domestic demand, the population of China's middle-income group exceeds 400 million, and will reach 800 million in the next decade or so. And nearly 300 million agricultural migrants are speeding up the process of citizenization, which will bring huge consumer demand and strong consumption upgrading momentum in the areas of housing, education, medical care, and health care of the ageing population.

China's economic innovation capacity has been constantly improving. China's investment in R&D and high-tech industries has maintained double-digit growth for several consecutive years. The number of patent applications now ranks first in the world. The number of high-tech enterprises has increased to about 400,000 and the number of unicorn enterprises ranks the second in the world. China's industrial optimization and upgrading has been remarkable, and it is climbing up to the middle and high end of the value chain. Among the 153 "lighthouse factories" released by the World Economic Forum, which represent the highest level of intelligent manufacturing in the world, 62, more than 40%, of them are in China. According to Global Innovation Index Report 2023 by the World Intellectual Property Organization, China's innovation index ranked the 12th. The number of scientific and technological clusters is 24, which ranked the first. The size of China's digital economy is expected to exceed 15 trillion U.S. dollars in 2027.

China is pushing forward the green and low-carbon transition. In 2022, the investment volume of energy  transition reached 546 billion U.S. dollars, four times  of that in the U.S. There will be large-scale incremental development in the green infrastructure, green energy, green transportation, green life and so on.  The potential market size is expected to reach 10 trillion Yuan per year. According to the General Administration of Customs, the total of China's exports of the "new three" (new-energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) exceeded 1 trillion Yuan for the first time in 2023, an increase of 29.9%. According to the prediction by Oxford Economics, China's emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing will continue to expand rapidly in 2024.

China's economic contribution to the world economy is significant. China has become a major trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions. The total tariff level has been reduced to 7.3%. The rate of return on foreign direct investment in China over the past five years has been about 9%, which is at a high level globally. The International Finance Forum reports that China's contribution to world economic growth will be 32% in 2023, remaining the largest driver of global economic growth (11% for the US). Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund, said that for every 1% growth in China's economy,  he production level of other economies will increase by an average of 0.3%. A report by RAND Corporation of the United States says that China has become the world's largest source of international development finance, providing loans and grants of about 1.34 trillion U.S. dollars for more than 20,000 projects in 165 low- and middle-income countries since 2000s, and that China's state-owned banks and corporations provide nearly six times as much funding for development projects as the United States.

The year 2023 is a year of the pragmatic advancement of China-Iran friendship and cooperation. President Xi Jinping and President Ebrahim Raisi have met twice. And the leaders of the two states have reached a series of important consensus on further promoting the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. China and Iran are both important developing countries and emerging economies, playing important parts in the world economy. Over the years, China has been Iran's largest trading partner and the most important export destination for Iranian goods. China has the world's most promising mega-market. It is the biggest engine of global economic growth, which will provide more development opportunities for countries around the world including Iran. Iran is an important country in the "Belt and Road" initiative. Both China and Iran are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism. So there is great potential for cooperation between the two countries. We hope that the relevant authorities of the two sides will actively promote the implementation of the important consensus between the leaders of two states, continuously strengthen practical cooperation between the two countries in various fields, and move forward towards the goal of jointly building an equal and orderly multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization.

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